Mapping Lido’s [LDO] future as retail buyers meet profit-taking whales

Key Takeaways

What fueled LDO’s recent surge?

Retail investors aggressively accumulated LDO, while spot outflows hit $1.15M, signaling strong buying pressure and renewed staking activity.

What threatens LDO’s momentum now?

Whales turned to profit-taking after LDO hit $1.30, creating selling pressure.

Lido Finance [LDO] surged 13.11%, breaking out and jumping to a three-week high of $1.35 before slightly retracing to $1.33 at press time.

 Over the same window, the altcoin’s volume surged 105% to $152 million, reflecting increased capital flows.

Is this the start of a sustained recovery?

Retail defends key support

As LDO dipped to $1.1, retail investors jumped into the market to defend it. The spot market recorded a positive delta for three consecutive days. 

Source: Coinalyze

According to Coinalyze, LDO saw 21.56 million in Buy Volume over this period compared to 20.6 million in Sell Volume. 

As a result, the altcoin recorded a positive Buy Sell Delta of 960k, a clear sign of aggressive accumulation. 

Furthermore, exchange activities echoed the trend. 

According to CoinGlass, Lido Dao recorded a negative Spot Netflow on the 18th of September after a hike the previous day.

At press time, Netflow was -$1.15 million, with an outflow of $26.53 million compared to $25.38 million in inflows. 

Source: CoinGlass

Often, when outflows outpace inflows, it signals increased buying pressure, which has historically resulted in higher prices. 

Staking activities bounce back, too 

After ETH’s price momentum faded, LDO’s staked assets dipped as investors pulled out to realize profit. Now, tides have turned. 

According to Token Terminal, LDO’s staked assets rose from $37.5 billion to $38.842 billion within two weeks. Over the past day, the staked asset surged 1.8% with revenue increasing by 7.7% to $9 million.  

Source: Token Terminal

Additionally, fees jumped by 7% to $89 million, further confirming increased staking activity. 

LDO whales cash out 

Surprisingly, as Lido Dao bounced back, whales took the opportunity to realize profit.

On the 17th of September, whales bought 5 million tokens and only offloaded 1.69 million LDO, resulting in 3.35 million in Balance change. 

Source: Nansen

However, after prices reached $1.3, whales accelerated their selling activity and offloaded 939.3k and acquired 822k tokens.

As a result, the market saw a negative balance change of -116k, a clear sign of aggressive selling.

Which way for LDO?

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Lido Dao surged as retail investors turned to accumulation. It retraced slightly as whales turned to cash out, leaving the market at a crossroads.

As a result of increased accumulation, the altcoin’s Stochastic RSI surged to 72 after making a bullish crossover, reflecting strong upward momentum.

This buying activity positions LDO for more gains.

Source: TradingView

If bulls hold, LDO will attempt to reclaim $1.4 resistance, but it needs a daily close above $1.33 to keep this bullish outlook.

However, if the momentum fades and profit-taking from whales overwhelms the market, LDO will find support at $1.149, where its Parabolic SAR sits.