Low close on Friday tilts tech risks to more softness – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is drifting lower, in line with the broader recovery in the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Scope for some further, corrective losses in the EUR

“The EUR itself is facing the risk of another rate cut from the ECB soon (25bps is priced in for the September 12th meeting). But a Reuters report yesterday highlighted divisions among ECB policymakers on the outlook thereafter, with some growing more concerned about recession amid weakening activity in Germany, and others more concerned about stubborn inflationary pressures.”

“A more cautious ECB into the end of the year suggests that EUR losses may not extend too far in the short run. EUR/USD has given back a little more than a third of the August rally and looks poised to cede a bit more ground in the short run at least.”

“A low close on the week through last Friday saw a bearish ‘dark cloud cover’ weekly candle signal develop which suggests scope for some further, corrective losses in the EUR. Support is 1.0990 and (stronger) at 1.0920/40. Resistance is 1.1070/75.”