Litecoin ETF Leads with 90% Approval Odds While XRP ETFs Lag Behind

• Bloomberg analysts have revealed their approval odds for altcoin ETFs. 
• Litecoin ETFs have a 90% chance of approval, while XRP ETFs have the lowest approval odds.

James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, analysts at Bloomberg, have published their most recent predictions for the approval chances of spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

They have narrowed their focus to Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Solana (SOL), and XRP, which are expected to gain SEC acknowledgement and regulatory clarity by the end of 2025.

90% Green Light for Litecoin ETFs

The Litecoin ETFs filed with Canary Capital and Grayscale likely have the best chance of clearing, at 90%. According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Litecoin is a commodity. Remarkably, the initial 19b-4 filed for Litecoin was submitted on January 16, 2025, and acknowledged on January 29, 2025. The latest deadline from the SEC for the final answer is October 2, 2025.

75% Likelihood of Dogecoin ETF Approval

Dogecoin ETFs, filed by Grayscale and Bitwise, have a 75% probability of getting approved because, like Litecoin, the SEC regards Dogecoin as a probable commodity. Thus raising its chances of the SEC accepting it. The first 19b-4 filing occurred on 31st January 2025. The acknowledgment date is expected on 14th February 2025 while the last SEC deadline is on 18th October 2025.

Moderate Odds for Solana and XRP ETFs Approval

The Solana ETFs with multiple issuers such as Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise, have a 70% chance of acceptance. However, the SEC is not currently including Solana under the commodity heading-would increase the chance of further scrutiny. The first 19b-4 submission for Solana was made on January 24, 2025, and the SEC took note on February 6, 2025. The final decision is due on October 10, 2025.

Moreover, XRP ETFs have received a 65% probability of approval and emerged as the lowest-ranked asset. The SEC has not yet acknowledged its 19b-4 filings. XRP ETF applications have been submitted by Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and WisdomTree. The first filing was made on January 30, 2025, with an expected acknowledgement on February 13, 2025. A final SEC deadline of October 17, 2025, has been set. 

Meanwhile, Balchunas and Seyffart predict that the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, under the leadership of Commissioner Hester Peirce to elucidate the categorization of various digital assets by the end of 2025. This commodity vs. security categorization might impact the chance of the approval of such a commodity-based ETF directly.

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