LINK Weekly Analysis Feb 5

LINK is showing a weak picture at the $8.91 level with a 6.70% weekly decline; while testing the critical $8.80 support with oversold RSI (23), the risk remains downward dominant as long as the downtrend structure is not broken. Although the market gives accumulation phase signals, Bitcoin’s bearish momentum makes a cautious approach mandatory for altcoins.

Weekly Market Summary for LINK

LINK is in a position dominated by the downtrend phase in the big picture; the weekly change of -6.70% shows a structure squeezed in the $8.80-$9.59 range. The volume profile remains low at $545.56M, momentum indicators (RSI 23.09) point to the oversold region while MACD sustains its bearish trend with a negative histogram. No close above EMA20 ($10.98) strengthens the short-term bearish filter. This week, LINK’s trend structure is being tested under general market weakness; the $8.80 support will be the key determinant for position traders. For more detailed spot data, you can check the LINK Spot Analysis page.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure draws a clear downtrend character on higher timeframes (1W/1M); the price remains below EMA20 and EMA50, and the bearish bias stays intact unless the $11.26 resistance filter is broken. In the context of the market cycle, there are signals of a possible transition to an accumulation phase after the distribution phase at the end of 2025, but volume confirmation is lacking. RSI divergences (slight positive divergence in weekly RSI at lows) offer trend reversal potential, but should be interpreted as counter-trend rallies within the macro downtrend. From a portfolio manager perspective, the $13.21 upside objective for the long-term horizon (monthly) remains low-scored (13/100), while downside risk extends to $4.71 (score 22/100); the R/R ratio supports strategic short positions.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

In the accumulation/distribution patterns analysis, the current price level shows accumulation characteristics around the $8.80 major support (score 79/100): low-volume tests, oversold oscillators, and volume profile POC concentrated in this region. However, emerging distribution signals in recent weeks (selling pressure at the upper range $9.59) imply continuation of the downtrend. From a Wyckoff methodology perspective, we may be in the secondary test phase; transition to a bullish phase is difficult without breaking $9.79 resistance (score 66/100). Follow LINK Futures Analysis data for futures market dynamics.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, the price is positioned at the $8.80 support confluence with 1S/2R levels (total 12 strong level confluences); MACD histogram narrowing after bearish cross shows momentum weakness. Staying below EMA20 preserves the short-term bearish structure; however, there is oversold bounce potential at RSI 23. Key inflection point $9.24 (score 61/100) – this is the daily pivot, and a breakout creates upward confluence.

Weekly Chart View

On the weekly chart with 4S/4R strong levels, bearish supertrend is active; the price is testing the major $8.80 support at weekly lows. The trend filter is bearish, preventing higher high formation without a close above $11.26. Multi-timeframe confluence supports with 1S/1R on 3D; volume increase is essential for accumulation. This confluence provides clear risk definition for position traders: support hold = long setup, break = accelerated downside.

Critical Decision Points

Critical decision points can be listed as follows: Major support $8.8000 (79/100 score, confluence 1D/1W), minor resistance $9.2483 (61/100), main resistance $9.7933 (66/100). Weekly close above $9.79 is required for trend breakdown; below, a $8.80 break opens the path to $4.71. These levels are pivots defining the market structure, with current charts available on the LINK and other analyses page. To watch: volume spikes and BTC correlation.

Weekly Strategy Suggestion

Upside Scenario

If the bullish scenario activates ($8.80 hold + $9.79 break), first target $11.26 EMA20, follow-up $13.21 objective. Strategy: Long entry at $9.24 confluence, stop below $8.70; position trade targeting R/R 1:3+. Scale-in with accumulation confirmation, but monitor BTC resistances.

Downside Scenario

Bearish scenario ($8.80 break), target $4.71 downside risk; short-term shorts active on $9.24 breakdown. Stop above $9.00, manage with trailing; bias downward as long as downtrend intact. Wait for altcoin rotation for portfolio diversification.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin at $69,475 with -8.77% decline in downtrend; supertrend bearish signal creates high correlated pressure for altcoins (LINK beta to BTC +0.85+). If BTC key supports $69,922/$65,606 break, LINK cannot hold $8.80, cascade risk increases. Watch resistances $71,183/$74,906: BTC bounce can trigger short-covering rally in LINK. Dominance rise crushes alts; position traders stay cautious until BTC $58,030.

Conclusion: Important Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $8.80 support hold/test, $9.79 resistance challenge, and BTC $69k dynamics. Volume increase + RSI divergence key for bullish flip; otherwise, distribution continues. Position traders should apply wait-and-see strategy at confluence levels – target opportunistic longs within macro cycle downtrend.