LINK Price Slides to $16.60 as Fed Rate Cut Fails to Boost Risk Assets Amid Technical Deterioration

Quick Take

• LINK trading at $16.60 (down 3.0% in 24h)
• Federal Reserve rate cut paradoxically weakens crypto markets including Chainlink
• LINK testing lower Bollinger Band support at $16.37
• Following Bitcoin’s volatile response to monetary policy shift

Market Events Driving Chainlink Price Movement

The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate cut on October 29th has created unexpected headwinds for LINK price, contrary to traditional market expectations. While rate cuts typically benefit risk assets, the cryptocurrency market has responded negatively, with Bitcoin experiencing significant volatility between $115,960 and $106,950 since the announcement.

This monetary policy shift has coincided with analysts predicting a potential 15% decline in LINK’s value due to deteriorating technical indicators and challenging macroeconomic conditions. The combination of Federal Reserve uncertainty and bearish technical signals has created a perfect storm for Chainlink price weakness.

The absence of significant positive catalysts in Chainlink’s ecosystem over the past week has left LINK price vulnerable to broader market forces, with institutional traders appearing to reduce risk exposure across cryptocurrency positions.

LINK Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Support Zone

Price Action Context

Chainlink technical analysis reveals concerning momentum as LINK price trades below all major moving averages except the 200-day SMA at $17.96. The current $16.60 level represents a significant 17% decline from the 50-day moving average at $20.04, indicating sustained selling pressure.

LINK price is closely following Bitcoin’s bearish trajectory, showing high correlation with the broader crypto market’s response to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. Trading volume on Binance spot market reached $49.5 million, suggesting institutional participation in the selloff.

Key Technical Indicators

The RSI at 39.60 has entered oversold territory, typically indicating potential bounce conditions, though momentum remains weak. The MACD histogram shows a slight bullish divergence at 0.0659, but the main MACD line remains deeply negative at -0.7824.

Chainlink’s position at 0.0977 on the Bollinger Band %B indicator places LINK price dangerously close to the lower band at $16.37, suggesting potential capitulation if this support fails.

Critical Price Levels for Chainlink Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $17.56 (20-day SMA and Bollinger Band middle)
• Support: $16.37 (Bollinger Band lower boundary)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A break below $16.37 could trigger cascade selling toward the immediate support at $15.69, with the strong support zone at $7.90 representing a worst-case scenario. Conversely, reclaiming $17.56 would signal potential stabilization and target the immediate resistance at $19.26.

LINK Correlation Analysis

• Bitcoin: LINK price showing 85%+ correlation with BTC’s volatile response to Fed policy
• Traditional markets: Following risk-off sentiment despite typically positive rate cut implications
• Sector peers: Underperforming relative to other oracle tokens due to technical weakness

Trading Outlook: Chainlink Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

A successful defense of $16.37 support combined with Bitcoin stabilization above $110,000 could trigger a relief rally toward $19.26. Chainlink technical analysis suggests oversold conditions may attract value buyers if broader market sentiment improves.

Bearish Case

Failure to hold Bollinger Band support at $16.37 would likely accelerate selling toward $15.69, with LINK price potentially testing yearly lows if macroeconomic uncertainty persists. The 15% decline prediction from analysts could materialize if current technical deterioration continues.

Risk Management

Conservative traders should consider stop-losses below $16.00 given the proximity to critical support. Position sizing should account for the elevated ATR of $1.34, indicating above-average volatility conditions for LINK price movements.

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