LayerZero (ZRO) Faces Major Token Unlock as Bulls Fight for $2.00 Support

Quick Take

• ZRO currently trading at $2.00 (+0.30% in 24h)
• LayerZero’s RSI sits neutral at 51.90 with bullish MACD divergence
• Major token unlock of 25.71M ZRO tokens scheduled for September 20, 2025

What’s Driving LayerZero Price Today?

LayerZero faces a critical juncture as the protocol prepares to unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens tomorrow, representing 8.53% of the circulating supply. This $49.36 million token release includes allocations to strategic partners and core contributors, creating significant downward pressure on the ZRO price as increased supply enters the market.

Despite this looming challenge, ZRO demonstrated remarkable resilience earlier this week with a 40% surge to $4.41 on September 18, driven by broader cryptocurrency market recovery. However, the current ZRO price of $2.00 suggests profit-taking and anticipatory selling ahead of the token unlock event.

The timing of this unlock couldn’t be more precarious, as it threatens to undermine the recent bullish momentum that lifted LayerZero’s market cap to $457 million. Traders are now positioning defensively, leading to increased volatility with today’s trading range spanning from $1.99 to $2.11.

ZRO Technical Analysis: Neutral Signals Emerge

LayerZero technical analysis reveals a complex picture as momentum indicators provide mixed signals. ZRO RSI currently sits at 51.90, positioning the token in neutral territory without clear directional bias. This reading suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for movement in either direction.

The bullish case for LayerZero strengthens when examining the MACD indicator, which shows positive momentum with a histogram reading of 0.0102. This suggests underlying buying pressure may still exist despite recent consolidation around the ZRO price of $2.00.

Moving averages paint a cautiously optimistic picture, with LayerZero’s price trading above key short-term averages. The SMA 7 at $1.99 and EMA 12 at $1.98 both sit slightly below the current ZRO price, providing immediate support. However, the SMA 200 at $2.26 acts as significant overhead resistance, indicating the longer-term trend remains challenging.

LayerZero’s Bollinger Bands show the token trading near the upper band at $2.11, with a %B position of 0.6823 suggesting moderate bullish positioning within the trading range.

LayerZero Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Based on Binance spot market data, LayerZero support levels are clearly defined with immediate support at $1.77 coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band. This level represents a critical defense for bulls, as a break below could trigger further selling toward the strong LayerZero support at $1.64.

ZRO resistance faces its first test at the immediate level of $2.11, which aligns with today’s trading high and the upper Bollinger Band. Breaking above this level would target the stronger ZRO resistance at $2.60, though this appears unlikely given the pending token unlock.

The pivot point at $2.03 serves as a crucial battleground, with the current ZRO price just below this level. Reclaiming and holding above $2.03 would signal short-term bullish control, while failure to maintain support could accelerate selling pressure.

Should You Buy ZRO Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

Conservative traders should avoid new long positions ahead of tomorrow’s token unlock, as the 8.53% supply increase typically creates downward pressure on ZRO price action. The risk-reward profile favors waiting for post-unlock clarity before establishing significant positions.

Aggressive traders might consider a contrarian approach, positioning for a potential bounce if LayerZero support levels at $1.77 hold during the unlock event. However, strict stop-losses below $1.64 are essential given the substantial supply shock.

Swing traders could benefit from the increased volatility, with the ZRO/USDT pair showing an Average True Range of $0.12, providing ample trading opportunities. The key is maintaining discipline around the established support and resistance levels while managing position sizes carefully.

Day traders should focus on the $1.99-$2.11 range, using the neutral ZRO RSI reading as confirmation that momentum could shift quickly in either direction based on unlock-related news flow.

Conclusion

LayerZero stands at a crossroads as tomorrow’s major token unlock threatens to overwhelm recent bullish momentum. While LayerZero technical analysis shows neutral to slightly bullish signals, the fundamental challenge of increased supply makes defensive positioning prudent. Traders should monitor how ZRO price reacts to the unlock event, with LayerZero support at $1.77 serving as the critical level that could determine whether bulls can maintain control or bears take charge of the next move.

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