Launch of the first ETF on Solana futures: institutional adoption?

The cryptocurrency industry is preparing for the significant debut of the first Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) on Solana (SOL) futures. 

This event could represent a fundamental step towards the launch of the first spot market Solana-based ETF, according to several industry experts.

The debut of Solana futures ETF  

On March 20, the company Volatility Shares will introduce two new products related to Solana:  

• – Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ)  
• – Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT)

These investment instruments offer institutional investors a regulated alternative to gain exposure to the Solana market, thus increasing the demand and liquidity of the SOL token.  

According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, this debut could encourage institutional adoption of Solana, bringing it closer to Ethereum’s market capitalization: 

“The launch of the first ETF on Solana in the United States could significantly strengthen its market position, increasing demand and liquidity for SOL and reducing the gap with Ethereum.”

The new ETF on Solana futures could attract billions of dollars in investments, increasing Solana’s competitiveness in the cryptocurrency market. However, Ethereum remains a solid competitor thanks to its established infrastructure.

Despite the potential positive impact, some industry experts raise doubts about the ability of futures ETFs to generate significant capital flows. 

This scenario reflects what happened with the launch of the ETF on Ethereum, which attracted fewer flows compared to the ETFs on Bitcoin.  

Eric Balchunas, senior analyst for Bloomberg ETFs, stated that Solana futures ETFs might not achieve high figures, resulting in a secondary product compared to ETFs on Bitcoin.

Spot ETF on Solana: the next step?

Despite the uncertainty about the performance of futures ETFs, their launch represents an important step towards the creation of a spot ETF on Solana.  

Attention towards Solana has increased after the former president of the United States Donald Trump announced that the Working Group on Digital Assets will include Solana, Cardano (ADA), and XRP in the United States strategic crypto reserve.  

According to Anmol Singh, co-founder of the trading platform Bullet, a spot ETF on Solana is the natural evolution of this trend:  

“A spot ETF on Solana has yet to be approved, but thanks to the growing media attention and the launch of futures ETFs, this could be the next logical step.”

Singh emphasized that, although a moderate inflow of capital is expected in futures ETFs, a spot ETF would represent a more significant milestone for investors.  

Measuring the adoption rate of futures ETFs accurately is complex. However, according to an analysis by JPMorgan, the spot ETF on Solana could attract between 3 and 6 billion dollars in the first six months of activity, thus surpassing the adoption rate of ETFs on Ethereum.  

“When we apply these adoption rates to SOL and XRP, we see Solana attracting between 3 and 6 billion dollars of new capital, while XRP could reach between 4 and 8 billion,”

it reads in the report by JPMorgan.  

However, the timing for the launch of a spot ETF on Solana could extend until 2026. According to James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the SEC generally takes 240 to 260 days to review requests related to ETFs.  

Conclusion  

The debut of the first ETF on Solana futures represents an important milestone for the institutional adoption of the token. 

Despite some doubts about the potential capital inflows into futures ETFs, the next step could be the approval of a spot ETF on SOL, with an even more significant impact on the markets.  

If JPMorgan’s forecasts prove correct, the spot ETF on Solana could attract billions of dollars, further consolidating the token’s position in the cryptocurrency sector. However, regulatory approval times could delay the process until 2026.