Kevin Warsh Leads as Top Candidate

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh leads the race to become the next Fed Chairman after Trump’s comments, with current economic advisor Kevin Hassett likely to withdraw.

Warsh’s selection as Fed Chairman could influence monetary policies, affecting markets globally, amid Trump’s commitment to maintaining Federal Reserve independence, per Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Warsh’s Rising Chances

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh now leads the prediction markets for the new Federal Reserve Chair role. President Trump is expected to announce a successor this month as Jerome Powell’s term nears expiration on May 15. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, who was a considered nominee, has hinted at remaining in his current role rather than pursuing the Fed chair position. After Trump’s comments, Warsh’s probability increased on Kalshi and Polymarket. Warsh’s experience and relationships within market and Treasury sectors make him a top contender, while current Fed Governor Christopher Waller holds a lower market probability for selection.

Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, emphasized Trump’s commitment to Federal Reserve independence. The ongoing selection process has sparked interest due to potential policy shifts under new leadership. Spot gold and silver prices surged as discussions continue, with silver gaining over 4% and gold up 2%.

“The markets have shifted significantly following the recent comments, with the odds on my potential nomination now around 60%.”

Market Implications

Did you know? Federal Reserve leadership changes historically correlate with market volatility, impacting assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s current price is $92,946.85, with a market capitalization of $1.85 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Recent price changes show a decline of 2.39% over 24 hours while maintaining a weekly gain of 2.47%. Trading volume rose to $36 billion, marking a 113.54% increase.

Coincu Research Team suggests that Warsh’s leadership could affect monetary policy direction, influencing market reactions with his potential appointment.