Kalshi Founder Reveals the Most Profitable Vertical for Prediction Markets

Kalshi:- Web3 is buzzing with prediction markets – the idea that these markets can turn the globe into participatory civic systems is everywhere. New prediction platforms are emerging fast with another new platform Melee recently closing $3.5M funding round amid creative launches like Zoo Market betting on global reach of these platforms.

Amid the burgeoning scenario, Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has signaled a notable industry shift taking place – signalling that sports are now the vertical driving the change.

In a recent Linkedin post, Mansour said Kalshi set new trading records during the opening weekend of the 2025 NFL season. With this, he reflected that sports are now the vertical driving the change for prediction market platforms.

That shift matters: when Kalshi launched sports markets in January 2025, politics was still the most profitable vertical – thanks to the 2024 U.S. election cycle. But now the revenue mix appears to be moving from politics to sports.

Sports: The Emerging Profitable Vertical in Prediction Markets?

For Kalshi, the stats make it evident that sports has rapidly overtaken politics as the platform’s most profitable vertical.

Kalshi set new trading records during the opening weekend of the 2025 NFL season. The company recorded daily volumes above $260 million – with Sunday surging record past $275 million. According to CEO Tarek Mansour, the platform handled roughly $441 million in trading activity in the first four days of the season.

The spike is notable because prediction markets historically peak around high-salience political events. The platforms including Polymarket’s election-day records had long set the benchmark – this NFL weekend not only matched but exceeded those volumes. This shows that mainstream sports fandom – when packaged as tradeable event contracts – can produce trading velocity and dollar turnover on par with national elections.

Kalshi has done $441m of volume since NFL kickoff.

NFL week 1 is equal to a US election.

Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/l08dshJ2eN

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 8, 2025

This is a blowout that according to Wall Street Journal could outbid the leading traditional sports betting platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel. The scale is already attracting market and media attention. Shares of major sportsbook operators and betting platforms, including DraftKings and Flutter, fell in the immediate wake of Kalshi’s announcement as investors weighed the competitive implications.

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What’s Next for Kalshi

Building up on its success, CEP Tarek informed that Kalshi has already partnered with Pro Padel League to launch markets for Padel sport calling it the “fastest growing racquet sport.” Kalshi has further signed a three-year deal with STATSCORE for access to real-time feeds and analytics needed for live sports markets.

It has also come up with new product hooks that can drive more engagement and keep these users engaged between marquee fixtures. For example, on September 30, Kalshi rolled out same-game parlay style contracts and “build your combo” parlay tools. These features let users combine event outcomes – those features generate bigger tickets, more frequent trades, and social/viral play.

The surge has also drove Kalshi’s share in terms of trading volume rising to 70% as of October 5, 2025.  However, a big season open like NFL Week 1 can produce headline volumes. But long-term profitability would depend on retention, hold rates/fees, and whether high volumes continue through midweeks and off-seasons. Elections are episodic but huge; sports repeats every week.

Nonetheless, for the whole industry, it signals that sports is rapidly emerging as a major – possibly dominant – vertical. Prediction-market ecosyste markets are no longer a niche, election-day curiosity but a contender for mainstream sports capital.

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