Kalshi data shows Trump leading with 63.3% probability ahead of election

• Trump’s prediction market odds surged after his pro-crypto campaign and public appearances.
• Kalshi’s data reflects Trump’s strong position as the election approaches.

As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, the race is intensifying with prediction markets showing significant movement.

Trump outpaces Harris

Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where his chances of winning have surged to over 60%.

Polymarket data now reflects a notable 26.5-point gap between Trump and Harris. 

This marks a jump from earlier predictions, which saw Trump at 61.3%.

His numbers reportedly spiked after a widely publicized appearance at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state where he enjoys strong support. 

As of the latest update, Polymarket data indicates that Trump is leading with 64.1% of the votes, while Harris trails with 35.9%.

Source: Polymarket

Conversely, Kalshi reports Trump at 60% and Harris at 40%.

Source: Kalshi

This is all because of Trump’s ongoing pro-crypto campaign that has been apparent from the beginning.

However, it was only after the first presidential debate that his odds in the prediction markets started to decline, despite having led the field from the outset.

All about the Kalshi prediction platform

So for those unaware, Kalshi, a relatively new entrant in the election prediction space, has made significant strides since launching its contracts in October following a favorable court ruling against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Despite its late start, Kalshi has already surpassed $30 million in trading volume on its primary election contract.

While this figure trails behind Polymarket, which achieved around $40 million in its first month of presidential betting and recently crossed the $2 billion mark, Kalshi’s position as a regulated platform gives it a distinct edge, having waited for the legal victory to enter the market. 

However, some critics, such as Mark Cuban, suggest that foreign investments may distort the betting odds, as U.S. citizens are officially barred from participating on these platforms. 

He said, 

“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything.” 

Kalshi vs Polymarket

Yet, it’s important to note that Kalshi’s platform shows Republican nominee Trump with a 14-point lead over Democratic contender Harris, but unlike its competitor Polymarket, Kalshi only allows U.S. nationals and permanent residents to participate, due to strict regulatory compliance. 

Polymarket, on the other hand, bans U.S. traders yet lacks the stringent verification process of Kalshi, operating with cryptocurrency-based bets.

Despite initial concerns that Kalshi’s regulatory status might be a disadvantage, it has shielded the platform from accusations of foreign interference and manipulation, a challenge Polymarket has faced. 

Remarking on the same, co-founder Tarek Mansour emphasized this distinction in a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), and said,  

Source: Tarek Mansour/X

As expected, he put it best when he concluded, 

“Media claim: a few big whales are driving Trump’s odds up. Reality: The median bet size on Harris is LARGER than the median bet size on Donald Trump. Trump’s odds are not the result of a few people pushing the odds up. It’s the opposite.”