JPMorgan Warns of $8.8 Billion Outflow If Strategy Inc. Exits MSCI

• Strategy Inc. released a model showing a 5.9x asset coverage ratio at current Bitcoin prices.
• The firm claims it can remain solvent even if Bitcoin crashes to $25,000.
• This defense clashes with a JPMorgan warning that Strategy risks removal from MSCI indices.

Strategy Inc. (MSTR) has issued a detailed defense of its balance sheet amid rising volatility. The company released a new capital structure analysis on Tuesday. It claims a robust 5.9x asset-to-debt coverage ratio. This disclosure arrives just as JPMorgan warns the firm risks exclusion from key MSCI equity indices.

The Defense: Strategy Claims Solvency Down to $25K Bitcoin

The new model provides a stress test of Strategy’s liability stack. It applies a Bitcoin price of $87,672 with an implied volatility of 45%. Under these conditions, the company projects a 1.40% breakeven Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

Crucially, the post noted the coverage ratio would remain at 2.0x even if Bitcoin collapsed to $25,000. This public disclosure aims to calm investor fears regarding the company’s solvency during deep market drawdowns.

Related: Saylor Claims Strategy Inc. Can Survive 90% Bitcoin Crash, Still Pay Dividends

Capital Structure Analysis Shows $16 Billion in Combined Obligations

Following the tweet, new data provided a broader view of Strategy’s capital structure, outlining how both debt and preferred equity components behave under its internal Bitcoin-linked assumptions. 

The model applies a BTC price of $87,672, implied volatility of 45%, and an annualized BTC return assumption of 30%, resulting in a 1.40% breakeven ARR over what appears to be a 71-year dividend horizon.

The convertible-debt section strengthens this assessment. Six tranches maturing between 2028 and 2032 total $8.214 billion, with durations of 1.8 to 3.5 years. BTC sensitivity across these notes remains minimal, ranging from 0.00% to 0.09%, while credit spreads reach no more than 3 bps, indicating limited modeled exposure to Bitcoin price swings within the debt stack.

Preferred equity makes up the remaining $7.8 billion. These five series (STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK, and STRD) carry longer durations of up to 10.5 years. Together, these liabilities produce a combined Bitcoin-rating multiple of 3.6x.

Funding Activity Marks a Change From Prior Year

These structural details are aligned with Strategy’s updated funding mix. The company raised $20.8 billion in 2025 through $11.9 billion in common equity, $6.9 billion in preferred equity, and $2.0 billion in convertible debt.

This allocation differs from 2024, when the company secured $22.6 billion, primarily through the issuance of common stock and convertible notes, marking a subtle but notable shift in the balance of its capital sources.

The External Threat: JPMorgan Warns of $8.8B Forced Selling

While Strategy defends its internal math, external risks are mounting. JPMorgan warned that Strategy may face removal from the MSCI USA Index. Analysts cited MSCI’s rules regarding “digital asset treasury” companies.

With Bitcoin now trading around $87,000, more than 30% below its peak, the bank estimated possible outflows of $2.8 billion, which could rise to $8.8 billion if other index providers adopt similar thresholds.

Related: Strategy (MSTR) Faces Exclusion From Major Indices in January