Is XRP Price Rally Sustainable While Whales Pull Tokens Off Exchanges?

• XRP breaks above $2, overtaking BNB to become the fourth-largest crypto.
• Whales are pulling XRP off exchanges, tightening supply amid long-term positioning.
• ETF inflows and technical momentum support the rally, with analysts maintaining an $8 target.

XRP is back in the spotlight after breaking above the key $2 level. Its price action, on-chain data, and ETF inflows are all pointing to renewed momentum. But as optimism builds, analysts are debating whether this rally has strong foundations to break a new all-time high.

XRP Breaks Above $2 as Momentum Builds

At press time, XRP is trading around $2.05, marking its highest level so far this year after an 8% surge in the past 24 hours. This move has lifted XRP’s weekly performance to a 10% gain, even though the monthly chart still reflects a 6.7% decline.

The reclaim of $2 is important. Analysts see this level as a psychological and technical pivot, and holding above it could allow XRP to establish fresh support. With that in mind, some market watchers are once again floating calls for a new all-time high.

One of the most consistent voices behind a bullish outlook remains Charting Guy, who has maintained an $8 price target since 2024, based on long-term technical formations. Despite the target taking time to materialize, he continues to stand by the projection.

XRP Overtakes BNB to Become Fourth-Largest Crypto

XRP’s rally has also reshaped the rankings. The asset recently reached a market capitalization of $122.7 billion, edging past BNB’s $120.4 billion to claim the No. 4 spot, behind only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether.

The move coincided with reports of $3.6 billion in whale accumulation since late December, alongside steady XRP ETF inflows.

Whales Pull XRP Off Exchanges as Supply Tightens

On-chain data is adding another layer to the bullish narrative. Analyst John Squire, citing Glassnode data, noted that XRP exchange balances are now at an eight-year low. This signals that coins are leaving exchanges rather than flowing in.

According to Squire, this trend reflects preparation rather than panic, often associated with longer-term positioning by large holders.

Further analysis from Leo Hadjiloizou highlights a developing supply shock narrative. Data from CryptoQuant shows that XRP holdings across 11 major exchanges have fallen by roughly 400 million tokens over the past three months. Hadjiloizou noted these exchanges represent about 70% of total XRP held on exchanges.

While Korean exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb have seen an increase of around 570 million XRP since October 2025, Hadjiloizou notes that excluding these two platforms, other exchanges have collectively shed close to 1 billion XRP in the same period. This suggests that outside of Korea, exchange supply is tightening rapidly.

Related: XRP Price Prediction 2026: SEC Victory and $1.14B ETF Flows Target $5-$8

Technical Analysts Stick With the $8 XRP Target

As XRP reclaims the $2 region for the first time in 2026, technical analysts are revisiting higher targets. Matt Hughes, also known as The Great Mattsby, recently echoed Charting Guy’s view that XRP is still on track for $8, despite near-term market noise.

The $8 projection aligns with historical price behavior, Fibonacci extensions, and the completion of the current impulsive wave structure on the chart. For context, XRP previously surged from $0.49 to $3.34 in about ten weeks (between November 2017 and January 2018), paused, and then resumed its uptrend roughly six months later.

From the current level, a move to $8 would require a gain of roughly 290%, placing the price near the 1.272 Fibonacci level on the weekly chart. 

While some market participants are already discussing $20 scenarios, Charting Guy has described such levels as possible but not part of his immediate outlook.

XRP ETFs Continue to Attract Capital

Institutional interest remains another major pillar supporting XRP’s rally. XRP ETFs recorded $13.59 million in new inflows on Friday, bringing total net inflows to about $1.18 billion and assets under management to $1.37 billion.

Source: SoSoValue

In December alone, XRP ETFs attracted over $600 million, following a strong launch period in November that saw $666 million in inflows in just two weeks. Since launching on November 13, the products have not recorded a single day of net outflows.

Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and 21Shares remain the largest contributors. Notably, XRP ETFs are now regarded as the best-performing ETF launches of 2025 and the second-fastest to reach $1 billion in inflows, trailing only Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Market commentators suggest that XRP’s dip below $2 in November and December may have slowed inflows temporarily. Still, ETF executives argue that clearer regulations expected by 2026 could unlock even stronger demand.

Is the XRP Rally Built to Last?

With XRP breaking above $2, overtaking BNB, seeing whales withdraw tokens from exchanges, and attracting consistent ETF inflows, the current rally appears to rest on more than just hype. However, the coming days will determine whether XRP can hold its ground above key levels and convert momentum into a sustained trend.

At the moment, the tightening exchange supply, institutional participation, and renewed technical confidence keep the sustainability question firmly in play.

Related: From $100 to $2: XRP Influencers Face Backlash Over Unmet Targets in 2025