Is XRP at Risk of a 50%+ Decline Like Past Cycles?

TLDR:

• XRP’s monthly trend ribbon historically marked shifts into bearish momentum with 50%+ declines following.
• The 2018 crash saw 65% losses while 2022 dropped 54%, suggesting each cycle shows improving resilience.
• XRP spot ETFs attracted over $1.1 billion in inflows while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bled capital.
• Price currently consolidates above $1.80-$2.00 support, but analysts warn a breakdown targets $1.10.

XRP trades dangerously close to losing its monthly trend ribbon, a technical breakdown that historically preceded catastrophic declines. 

In 2018 and 2022, similar losses of this key support level triggered drops of 65% and 54% respectively. The asset now faces a critical test that could determine whether history repeats itself.

Market analysts remain divided on whether XRP will follow its established pattern or break free from past cycles.

Technical indicators suggest vulnerability, yet institutional money flows paint a starkly different picture. This divergence leaves traders questioning which signal will prove decisive in the weeks ahead.

Technical Warnings Echo Previous Market Tops

Trader Steph_iscrypto identifies the monthly trend ribbon as XRP’s most reliable long-term momentum indicator. 

The ribbon functions as a clear dividing line between bullish and bearish regimes across multiple cycles. When price trades above this level, bullish momentum typically persists without major interruption.

The 2018 breakdown marked the beginning of XRP’s most severe bear market on record. Once the trend ribbon flipped negative, sellers dominated for months as the asset shed 65% of its value. 

A similar pattern emerged in 2022 when another loss of this support triggered a 54% decline.

However, Steph_iscrypto notes that XRP currently remains above the ribbon, which continues expanding upward in green. 

The consolidation above $1.80-$2.00 represents absorption rather than distribution if this analysis holds. Ali Charts counters this optimism by declaring support already broken, with $1.10 emerging as the next logical target.

Institutional Flows Contradict Bearish Setup

X Finance Bull presents evidence that challenges the bearish technical case against XRP. Since spot ETF launches, the asset has attracted over $1.1 billion in consistent inflows despite choppy conditions. 

This capital migration occurred while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced notable outflows during the same stretch.

The disconnect between declining prices and rising institutional accumulation often signals professional positioning ahead of reversals. 

Sophisticated investors typically buy weakness rather than chase strength, using technical selloffs as entry opportunities. The sustained nine-figure inflows suggest major players view current levels as attractive accumulation zones.

Past cycles showed progressively smaller corrections, indicating structural improvement in XRP’s market foundation. 

The 2018 drop of 65% gave way to a 54% decline in 2022, suggesting each cycle builds greater resilience. If this pattern continues, any potential correction may prove less severe than historical precedents.

The critical question centers on whether price will follow institutional flows or technical patterns will override bullish capital movement. 

Monthly closes above the trend ribbon would invalidate bearish scenarios and confirm continued strength. Conversely, a confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger the third major correction cycle in XRP’s history.

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Source: https://blockonomi.com/is-xrp-at-risk-of-a-50-decline-like-past-cycles/