Experts are issuing dire warnings over a potential Bitcoin crash, citing escalating geopolitical tensions and oil prices amid the US-Iran war. Data shows the odds of the ongoing US-Iran conflict extending through May surged to 70%. Leading expert claims the US has already lost the Iran war and there is no exit strategy.
US-Iran Conflict Could Extend Beyond May
The odds of the US-Iran conflict ending by May 15 has increased to 70%, according to Polymarket data. The risks have heightened as efforts to de-escalate the situation falter and military deployments continue to mount in the Middle East.
Oil prices jumped towards $95 on Thursday as escalations overshadowed a coordinated release of oil reserves by major economies. Iraq halted oil terminal operations after two oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, The Hill reported on March 12. With the US dollar index (DXY) rising to 99.5, uncertainty is driving investors away from risk assets such as Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Polymarket traders see a 47% chance of traffic returning to normal at the Strait of Hormuz by April 30. Prediction markets now reveal lower odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. The Trump administration estimated the first-week cost of the Iran war at $11.3 billion.
American political scientist John Mearsheimer argues that the United States has already lost the Iran war, with no clear path to a decisive victory or exit. He said “Iranians have an incentive to continue the war to turn it into a protracted war of attrition. And they have the means to do that. So the question then is how does President Trump get Iran to agree to settle this war?”
Trump wants an off-ramp but can’t find one, as Iran refused talks and can escalate by targeting Gulf infrastructure and oil flows, harming the global economy.
Bitcoin to Crash Ahead?
Kevin Steuer, in a recent interview on The David Lin Report, highlighted three key signals for market panic. These are oil breaching $100 per barrel, VIX spiking above 30, and escalating Middle-East conflicts.
Steuer noted Bitcoin is forming a potential bottom, but it depends on the US-Iran conflict resolution. However, if escalations and oil prices continue to rise, Bitcoin could crash as traders will shift to traditional safe havens such as gold.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted oil prices will now push higher after retesting support. He remains bearish on Bitcoin for the short term. “Somehow I am on a bunch of threads with insane Bitcoin bulls. They are completely nuts. I need to do a lot of blocking, he said.
Bitcoin is trading range-bound between $68K and $71K, currently at $69,822. The 24-hour low and high are $68,998 and $71,337, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume has decreased by 10% in the last 24 hours, indicating a decline in interest among traders.