Is Toncoin setting the stage for a major price reversal? Assessing…

• TON’s price action indicates accumulation, as reflected in the 180-day Sharpe Ratio.
• TON is showing signs of accumulation and potential for a price rebound.

Toncoin [TON] has been at the center of market attention due to its significant price fluctuations and high-risk exposure.

In recent months, multiple indicators have pointed towards potential accumulation, despite a prolonged decline in its value.

 High risk, yet a glimmer of hope

In early 2025, the Risk Exposure Ratio for TON surged to its highest levels, surpassing 0.24. This increase indicates that leveraged positions now make up a significant portion of TON’s DeFi activity.

Despite the ongoing price decline, the high-risk exposure ratio suggests that a deleveraging phase could be underway.

Source: CryptoQuant

As the price continues to decrease, the market’s current over-leveraged position may lead to forced liquidations.

However, a decline in the Risk Exposure Ratio could indicate market stabilization, which might set the stage for healthier price action.

The current situation reflects a balance between high risk and the potential for a price recovery, depending on whether the deleveraging process resolves or persists.

Shifting tides of market sentiment

Looking at the medium-term Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), TON’s price movements indicate a shift toward an accumulation phase.

Source: CryptoQuant

In December 2024, there was a noticeable decline in NRM, signaling that the market was transitioning from a high-risk environment to one that favors accumulation.

The price action during this period shows the market is likely absorbing sell pressure and preparing for a potential rebound.

The NRM chart highlights that current levels align with previous accumulation zones that historically preceded price recoveries.

If this pattern continues, TON may be poised for a recovery as risk levels decrease and buying interest increases.

Calm before the storm?

Further analysis for TON revealed a significant decrease in the 30-day volatility, at 80.47% at press time. This decline followed the price drop and suggested a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

Source: CryptoQuant

When volatility decreases, it often precedes sharp price movements, either upwards or downwards.

The lower volatility phase, combined with a more stable price action, could indicate that selling pressure is fading, creating an environment ripe for a rebound.

Historically, such periods of low volatility have often led to price increases.

Signs of bottoming and accumulation

The Sharpe Ratio for TON showed a significant drop, reaching multi-month lows. This indicated that the risk-adjusted returns have been diminishing, highlighting a period of lower profitability for investors.

Source: CryptoQuant

However, this sharp decline in the Sharpe Ratio also points to a possible bottoming phase, where risk-adjusted returns may start improving as the market stabilizes.

Also, similar low Sharpe Ratio levels have marked accumulation zones, suggesting that investors may be positioning themselves for a future rally.

As the risk environment normalizes, the Sharpe Ratio may begin to improve, providing further confirmation of a rebound.

TON’s future potential

Finally, the long-term NRM chart reinforced the idea of accumulation. The recent low NRM levels suggested that the market was in a consolidation phase, potentially signaling a bottoming out.

Source: CryptoQuant

These low risk levels indicated that the market was transitioning into a low-risk environment, which often precedes price increases.

Given the alignment of the long-term NRM with previous accumulation phases, it is possible that TON is entering a new cycle of price appreciation.

In conclusion, TON is showing strong signs of positioning for a rebound.