​​Is Sui Poised for Strong Q4 as History Favors Year-End Rally

Key Points

• Sui historically posts highest gains in Q4, with November averaging +56.9%.
• Network surpasses 4.1 billion transactions, showing strong user growth.
• Bullish technical setup targets $5.47 to $8.55 if $4.32 resistance breaks.

Sui has consistently shown strong Q4 performance, with historical data confirming significant gains in November and December. November has averaged 56.9% returns, while December follows with 23.1% on average.

In 2024, Sui rose 76.7% in November and 18.2% in December, maintaining its seasonal momentum. Similarly, 2023 posted 37% and 28% gains, confirming this recurring pattern across cycles.

Recent Metrics Show Resilience After Mid-Year Weakness

Sui’s 2025 started with steep losses, dropping 30.8% in February and 19.8% in March. However, it rebounded with 55% in April and 30.2% in July, signaling recovery.

Overall, June averages remain weak at -21.3%, reinforcing the contrast between mid-year corrections and strong year-end rallies. This positions Sui for another potential Q4 surge if the trend holds.

SUI trades at $3.6074 with a 2.54% daily gain, backed by a $12.89B market cap and $240.29M spot volume. Futures markets remain active, with $5.28B daily volume and $1.93B in open interest.

The circulating supply stands at 3.57B SUI, with a total and max supply capped at 10B. This supports a controlled inflation model that aids long-term price stability.

On-Chain Activity and Technicals Support Bullish Setup

Sui has surpassed 4.1 billion total transactions as of September 10, 2025, reflecting steady on-chain adoption. Transaction volume rose 3.67% in the last 30 days, showing growing user activity.

Since mid-2023, throughput scaled from under 1 billion to 4 billion, reinforcing network strength and sustained demand. Performance indicators show mixed short-term signals but strong medium and long-term growth.

SUI has gained 12.03% over 90 days and 55.19% over 180 days, while its 1-year return stands at 293.18%. Year-to-date performance is -12.39%, but overall appreciation since inception is 110%.

Derivatives data shows a bullish bias, with Binance’s long/short ratio at 2.3602 and top traders positioned even higher at 2.8147. OKX also shows strength with a 1.91 ratio, indicating consistent optimism.

Technical analysis reveals a potential breakout above $4.32, with targets at $5.47, $6.19, $7.39, and $8.55. The setup aligns with historical patterns and market sentiment, suggesting possible upside continuation.