- ADA has hit the $0.52 support four times this year, which weakens the level and raises the risk of a deeper move to $0.35 to $0.45 if buyers fail.
- Analyst Dan Gambardello says ADA will follow any BTC/ETH capitulation, with a worst case path under $0.25 if liquidity stays tight.
- Bulls still point to Leios, Hydra L2, rising open interest, and positive funding as fuel if the Fed’s QT pause restores flows.
Cardano (ADA) is back at its key macro support near $0.52, a level it has retested multiple times since the October 11, 2025 crypto crash. Each revisit has chipped away at that demand zone, so the latest test is more fragile than the first one.
If bulls do not step in with real volume over the next sessions, the market will start trading the downside map instead of the bounce map, which raises liquidation risk for late longs.
Related: ADA Price Faces Extended Weakness as Sellers Retain Control
According to a popular crypto analyst Dan Gambardello, ADA price action is highly correlated with Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin (BTC). As such, a potential crypto capitulation in the coming days will not spare ADA.
From a technical analysis standpoint, ADA price has been trapped in a choppy consolidation year-to-date. In the daily timeframe, ADA price has formed lower highs and lower lows, an established characteristic of a falling trend.
According to Gambardello, the ADA price will likely find a support range between $0.35 and $0.45 if the bulls fail to take over from $0.52. A further drop towards the range between $0.25 and $0.35 will happen if the anticipated liquidity flow to the crypto market is delayed.
Furthermore, the fresh capital inflow to the crypto market has stopped and Wintermute noted liquidity has been rotating internally. Ultimately, Gambardello believes ADA price will fall below $0.25 if the macro liquidity fails to enter the crypto market.
ADA’s Bull Case: Fundamentals And Upcoming Upgrades
Cardano’s bullish thesis from its YTD support level is bolstered by the network developments. The Cardano network, led by Charles Hoskinson, has evolved through several key upgrades to achieve optimal decentralization, security , and now scalability.
Related: Cardano Gains Institutional Footing Despite Grayscale ADA ETF Holdup
The Cardano ecosystem has been working on shipping key upgrades, including Leios and Hydra L2 in the midterm. As such, Hoskinson has urged the ADA community to exercise patience and the upgrades will begin shipping in the coming months.
Derivatives Data Shows Bulls Are Still Swinging
Cardano bulls have the upper hand backed by institutional capital. Grayscale Investments is likely to have a spot ADA ETF listed soon, even if the U.S. government shutdown continues due to the generic listing standards adopted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Market data analysis from CoinGlass shows ADA’s funding rate has turned positive in the past three days. Historically, a positive funding rate has been associated with bullish outlook and vice versa. Meanwhile, Cardano’s rebound from the recent crypto crash has been partially fueled by its rising open interest, from around $580 million to $672 million in the past 24 hours.
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