Is a Bull Run on the Horizon?

The Bitcoin market has entered its fourth quarter this month. As the market steps into the final quarter of 2024, the expectations remain high. Traditionally, Q4 has been favorable for the BTC market. In Q4 2024, the market delivered an impressive return of +56.65%. Since 2011, at least eight times, Bitcoin has provided a positive return in Q4. If the market follows the historical pattern, this quarter will likely be an extremely bullish period for Bitcoin. In mid-March, the BTC price crossed the threshold of $73,000, creating a new all-time high.

It was the reason why the market recorded an enviable return of +68.7% in the first quarter. In Q2 (-12% return) and Q3 (+0.76% return), the market struggled to outperform Q1 and failed to achieve a new all-time high. Will BTC hit a new All-Time High this quarter? Here are the top factors that can determine whether a new all-time high is possible this quarter or not. 

Macroeconomic Conditions Will Be Crucial 

A strong macroeconomic environment is pertinent for the Bitcoin market to perform well in this quarter. Indicators like unemployment rates and inflation data can significantly influence the market. Recently, when the US Fed announced an interest rate cut, the market responded by climbing upwards. Meanwhile, when the Israel-Iran conflict escalated to new levels, the market started to decline as a quick reaction. 

The US economy is right now navigating one of its toughest times. As long as the economy avoids falling into a recession, the chances will remain high for the BTC market to create a new all-time high this quarter. 

Political Influence Could Shape the Market  

Many expect a shift in the US government’s attitude towards the crypto sector post the presidential election. Both Democrats and Republicans are now aware of the significance of the sector, as it has emerged as a key topic during the election campaign. If the next US administration works towards bringing clarity to the crypto regulation environment, it will be a big boost that the sector can gain. However, if the incoming regime shows a hostile attitude towards cryptos, it will worsen the situation. 

Institutional Investment Will Drive Momentum

In the CMC report, it mentions a new trend in the Bitcoin market: the increasing institutional investor interest in BTC. If this trend continues, we can expect more funds flowing into the market. What a sudden rise in capital inflows into a market generally guarantees is a sharp surge in its price. Notably, the flow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs is another key factor that should be closely watched. 

Bitcoin Market Landscape: A General Analysis 

At the start of the Q4 of 2024, the BTC price was at $63,339.95. It suffered a sharp fall that day to a low of $60,805, as the Israel-Iran crisis escalated to new heights. On September 2, the market moved further downward to a new low of $60,658. Yesterday, it showed a small sign of recovery, climbing slightly to $60,776. Now, the market is trying to trend upward. The Bitcoin price stands, as of now, at $61,304. In the last seven days, the market has seen a fall of 6.3%. In the last 24 hours, it has displayed a rise of +1.0%. 

In conclusion, if the factors mentioned in the report play out positively, we can expect a new all-time high in Q4 of 2024. 

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