Is a 37% Drop Next?

Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after its recent correction dragged the price toward the $70,000 level. Viewed through a macro lens, this move has exposed BTC to elevated downside risk. 

Several on-chain and technical indicators now align with a bearish outlook. However, large holders are actively accumulating, attempting to slow or reverse the developing trend.

Sponsored

Bitcoin Loses A Major On-Chain Support

Bitcoin has dropped below the True Market Mean for the first time since September 2023. This metric reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating supply. Trading below it signals weakening conviction among participants and marks a structural shift in market behavior.

The loss of this anchor confirms deterioration that has been forming since late November. From a mid-term perspective, Bitcoin is now confined within a broader valuation corridor. Upside momentum has weakened, while downside pressure continues to build across multiple timeframes.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

On the downside, the Realized Price near $55,800 represents the historical level where long-term capital re-enters. On the upside, the True Market Mean of around $80,200 has flipped into resistance. This configuration limits recovery potential and increases the probability of further downside exploration.

Sponsored

Bitcoin’s Macro Outlook Suggests 37% Crash

This structural weakness aligns with a macro bearish setup visible on the charts. Bitcoin is breaking down from a Head and Shoulders pattern that has been developing for months. This formation carries a projected downside of roughly 37%, targeting $51,511 if fully realized.

The sharp 20% decline over the past week accelerated this breakdown. Rapid selling pressure confirmed the pattern’s neckline breach, intensifying bearish momentum. Such moves often lead to follow-through declines as trapped long positions unwind.

The next critical support below $70,000 sits at $68,072. Losing this level would validate the bearish projection. A decisive break would likely trigger additional liquidations, increasing volatility, and accelerating price movement toward lower structural levels.

Sponsored

BTC Whales Jump In As Rescue

Despite mounting bearish signals, Bitcoin whales are actively attempting to prevent further downside. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated more than 50,000 BTC in just four days. At current prices, this accumulation exceeds $3.58 billion.

This behavior reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative trading. Large holders often accumulate during periods of fear, especially after sharp corrections. Bitcoin slipping below $75,000 appears to have created an attractive entry zone for long-term capital.

If whale accumulation continues, it could absorb sell-side pressure and stabilize the price. Historically, such activity has preceded short-term rebounds. However, sustained impact depends on broader market sentiment and whether retail selling pressure subsides.

Sponsored

BTC Price Is Close To Falling Below $70,000

Bitcoin price is trading near $69,500 at the time of writing after a 20% weekly decline. For now, BTC is yet to close a daily candle below $70,000 psychological support. This level has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections, making it critical for near-term stability.

From a short-term perspective, downside risks remain elevated. A breakdown below $68,442 would likely trigger accelerated selling. Under that scenario, Bitcoin could fall toward $65,360. Losing that support may expose BTC to a deeper slide toward $62,893.

Alternatively, whale accumulation could influence price direction. A successful defense of $70,000 may allow Bitcoin to rebound toward $75,000. Reclaiming that level as support would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis and reopen the path toward $80,000 if momentum improves.