Injective [INJ] drops 73% from ATH, but will THIS spark a rebound?

• INJ has dropped 73% since its ATH, forming a falling wedge pattern that hinted at a potential bullish breakout.
• The INJ 3.0 upgrade aims to reduce the supply until 2026, igniting hopes of a price recovery.

Injective’s [INJ] prices have steadily decreased since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $53 in March 2024. Since then, the altcoin has declined nearly 73% and fell toward its 15-month low after witnessing an extended downtrend.

However, recent price trends show how buyers can take advantage of INJ’s short-term volatility during this downturn.

Can INJ bulls trigger a patterned breakout?

Source: TradingView, INJ/USDT

INJ has been in a rather sharp downtrend since its ATH, tracking the movement of the broader crypto market.

The altcoin’s reversal from the $34 resistance set the stage for the bears. INJ also formed a falling wedge pattern on its daily chart, a setup that typically hints at a potential bullish breakout.

But this pattern dragged the price below its 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a strong bearish edge.

Moreover, the recent death cross (20/50-day EMA crossing below 200-day EMA) reinforced this downtrend.

It’s worth noting that INJ hit a 15-month low on the 3rd of February. It saw a series of green candles from this low but struggled to cross its 20-day EMA around the $15.6 resistance.

A convincing close above this level could spark a stronger recovery toward the next ceiling at the $18—$20 range. If broader market sentiment deteriorates, a near-term drop will likely test the $9.6-$10 range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, indicating insufficient buying pressure. A decisive break above 50 would signal buyers to go long.

INJ 3.0 upgrade could ignite bullish hopes

Injective recently approved its INJ 3.0 upgrade, aiming to reduce the token’s circulating supply dramatically until Q1, 2026.

This deflationary push could tighten supply over time, potentially driving up INJ’s value if demand picks up—especially important if the broader market sentiment shifts bullish.

Derivative data hints at optimism

Source: Coinglass

INJ’s derivatives volume jumped 18.63% to nearly $199 million, while Open Interest fell 7.5% to around $105 million.

Rising volume with declining Open Interest often signals position closures, which could set the stage for new longs if bullish sentiment returns.

The overall Long/Short Ratio on Binance was 2.11, reaffirming traders’ short-term optimism.

The price behavior around its falling wedge boundary and the 20-day EMA should now help buyers determine the altcoin’s immediate uptrend.

The chances of continued downside could increase if broader market sentiment remains shaky, especially around Bitcoin.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion