ICP Technical Analysis Feb 22

In ICP, the price decline is weakening along with the volume drop; low participation is reducing selling pressure and giving possible accumulation signals. Market sentiment points to hidden strengthening supported by oversold RSI.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ICP’s 24-hour trading volume was realized at the 46.81 million dollar level, which is about 25% below the average volume of the last 7 days. Despite the 4.76% price drop, this decrease in volume indicates weak market participation. Usually, in a healthy downtrend, we expect volume to increase, but here the opposite is happening: Volume remains dry on down days, which is a sign that sellers are tiring. According to volume profile analysis, the POC (Point of Control) level for the last 1 week is concentrated around 2.20, meaning the market is seeking balance in this range. In the 1D timeframe, volume nodes are thinning at low levels, while the 9 strong levels in 3D and 1W timeframes (mostly resistance-focused: 5R/1S in 3D, 4R/1S in 1W) draw a cautious picture for altcoins. With low participation rates, retail investors are staying away from panic sales; this suggests that institutional players are waiting on the sidelines.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Although the price is bearish below EMA20 (2.44$), RSI at 30.31 has entered the oversold zone. The price-volume divergence simultaneous with the volume drop is evident: While price makes new lows, volume has decreased, this is a classic accumulation pattern. MACD histogram has turned positive, histogram bars are widening – price doesn’t fall without volume confirmation. In the last 3 days, uptick volumes are higher than down volumes (15% excess), meaning buyers may be collecting low levels. If the support level at 1.95$ (score 69/100) holds when tested with volume, accumulation strengthens. These patterns show similarity to before the ICP rally in 2021.

Distribution Risks

Supertrend is bearish and resistance at 2.74$/4.51$ (score 63/100) is strong; if volume increases without breakout, capitulation may come. In MTF, resistance weight (10R/3S out of total 9 levels) warns of distribution. Although 24h volume is low, sudden spikes may indicate whale sales. Bearish target 0.90$ (score 22) can be realized with volume increase.

Price-Volume Alignment

Although price is in a downtrend, volume confirmation is lacking: Declines have volume below average (30% low), which says the trend is not healthy. In a healthy bear market, down candles see volume explosions, but here it dries up – bullish divergence. In up moves (recent 1.2% recovery), volume increased 40%, confirmation is strong. Combined with RSI divergence, price looks weaker than volume. Volume delta analysis: Positive delta dominates, buyers are quietly overpowering sellers. This confirms that volume tells a hidden story beyond price action.

Big Player Activity

Institutional footprints are unclear but there are clues: Large block trades are concentrated in the 2.00-2.20 band, on-chain data shows whale accumulation up 12% last week. Volume spikes cluster at 1W low volume nodes, typical smart money trap. Whale ratio (large vs small trades) has risen to 65%, distancing from retail. However, exact positions cannot be known; only patterns should be followed. Detailed data available for ICP Spot Analysis and ICP Futures Analysis.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 67,380$ level with -1.67% drop in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. ICP correlates 0.85% with BTC; if BTC supports at 66,988$/64,355$ break, ICP may lose 1.95$. If resistances at 68,045$/70,586$ are surpassed, altcoin rally triggers, bullish target 2.96$ opens. With high BTC dominance, alts are weak, caution: If ICP diverges from BTC (with volume increase), outperformance chance exists.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume story has a bullish tilt: Low participation weakens sells, divergences signal accumulation. Short-term, if 1.95$ holds, expect recovery with volume increase (target 2.96$). Bearish scenario with volume spike to 0.90$. Watch volume > price, volume confirmation essential for healthy up. Educational note: Dry volume on declines = buyer preparation; spikes may be traps.