How Rising US Treasury Yield and US Election Can Impact Next Move

The BTC price has once again come under selling pressure facing rejection at $69,000 levels as the focus shifts towards key macro developments in the US market. With US Treasury Yield hitting 3-month highs, the concerns of inflation are back again. On the other hand, the upcoming US elections and the chances of Donald Trump’s presidency have been weighing over the crypto market sentiment.

BTC Price Action Amid Rising US Treasury Yield

Ever since the FOMC meeting, the Bitcoin price has gained by 18% spurred by Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that interest rate cuts will continue. While this has fueled bullish momentum in the crypto space, the developments in the US Treasury Yield suggest otherwise.

According to the CNBC data, the US 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 4.2% on Tuesday, for the first time in three months since July 26. On one hand, while the Fed decided to cut rates by 50 basis points, the Treasury yields have gained by a similar magnitude.

Furthermore, the bond yields have also hit the highest levels at 4.06% since August 20. Treasury yields, which reflect market expectations for monetary policy, indicate that investors now foresee higher interest rates in the coming years despite the Fed’s significant rate reduction. Although the market expects rate reductions in November or December, increasing bond yields are drawing attention to inflation risks.

The BTC price is currently trading 0.74% down at $67,033 with a market cap of $1.325 trillion. On the other hand, the upcoming US elections are also on investors’ radar as Donald Trump increases his lead over Kamala Harris in the prediction market.

In its report, 10x Research noted that the rising election odds of former President Donald Trump may alter the Fed’s strategy, potentially forcing a pause in rate cuts due to his pro-growth economic policies.

It’s Now or Never for Bitcoin

Popular crypto analyst Skew noted that the recent pullback in the BTC price in early week trading remains on the expected lines. Skew indicated that Bitcoin needs to establish a new higher high by midweek to demonstrate its strength.

“Ideally, if this market is truly robust, the price should make a higher high around midweek above $69K,” he added. On the downside, a chart highlighted the $65,000 zone as a key target, along with several short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs).

$BTC 4H
Shallow pullback as expected into early week trading

Structure still intact here
– HLs

Ideally if this market is actually strong price should make a HH around mid week above $69K

Deeper pullback would be around $66K – $65K + 4H/1D EMAs https://t.co/nMTdv48Aca pic.twitter.com/UuqLl1BB2J

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 21, 2024

On the other hand, the commodity markets are flourishing with Gold and Silver hitting multi-year highs. Market analysts are predicting that if Bitcoin replicates Gold rally, its price could surge all the way to $230,000 moving ahead.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.