HBAR Could Rally After Bullish Flag, Double Bottom and Elliott Wave Signals as Canary ETF Progresses, Ecosystem Risks Remain

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HBAR price is showing a bullish setup: a confirmed bullish flag and double-bottom combined with Elliot Wave positioning and 200‑day EMA support point to a potential breakout toward $0.38–$0.40, though ETF timing and on‑chain liquidity constraints could moderate momentum.

• Bullish flag and double-bottom suggest upside continuation to $0.38–$0.40

• HBAR sits above its 200‑day EMA, supporting trend confirmation

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TVL ≈ $220M and stablecoin supply ≈ $86M highlight ecosystem liquidity limits

HBAR price outlook: bullish flag and Elliot Wave support potential breakout—monitor ETF timeline and on‑chain liquidity for confirmation. Read on for targets and risks.

HBAR price signals a bullish trend with a bullish flag pattern, supported by Elliot Wave analysis and potential ETF approval, despite ecosystem challenges.

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Key Insights:

• HBAR’s price is forming a bullish flag pattern, suggesting a potential breakout to $0.38.
• Elliot Wave analysis indicates HBAR could target $0.40 if the current wave follows the expected pattern.
• HBAR’s potential ETF approval could drive institutional interest, but ecosystem challenges pose risks.

What is the HBAR price outlook?

HBAR price shows a bullish technical structure with a flag and double‑bottom that point to a medium‑term target near $0.38–$0.40 if momentum and on‑chain liquidity hold. Institutional catalysts such as an ETF approval could accelerate inflows, while low TVL and reduced stablecoin supply remain downside constraints.

How does the bullish flag pattern affect HBAR price?

The bullish flag began after a rally from $0.1230 to $0.3055 (June 22–July 28). The subsequent descending channel functions as the flag consolidation. If the breakout occurs, the flagpole projection targets roughly $0.38, calculated by adding the pole height to the breakout point.

Technical confirmation includes price reclaiming the breakout neckline and sustained trading above the 200‑day EMA, which has acted as key dynamic support.

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How does Elliot Wave analysis support the bullish case?

Current structure aligns with a corrective second wave retrace of 50–61.8% of the prior impulsive leg. If the next impulsive wave resumes, targets include the prior high near $0.40—about an 86% move from current levels—assuming standard wave extensions and no major market reversal.

When could a Hedera ETF decision impact HBAR?

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on the Canary HBAR ETF is a key catalyst. Recognition by clearing entities such as the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) signals procedural progress. An approval would likely increase U.S. institutional participation and liquidity, compressing bid‑ask spreads and potentially reinforcing the technical breakout.

Why do Hedera ecosystem metrics matter for price sustainability?

Positive technicals can be undermined by limited ecosystem liquidity. Hedera’s DeFi TVL is approximately $220 million versus a broader DeFi market near $250 billion, and stablecoin supply on Hedera sits close to $86 million. Low DEX volumes and constrained stablecoin liquidity can cap sustainable gains if inflows outpace on‑chain capacity.

What are the measurable risk thresholds?

• Breakdown below $0.1230: Invalidates double‑bottom support and raises risk to lower targets.
• Failure to hold 200‑day EMA: Weakens the bullish trend and increases downside probability.
• ETF delay or rejection: May reduce immediate institutional inflows and slow momentum.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the immediate HBAR price target after a bullish flag breakout?

Following a confirmed breakout, the near‑term technical target is approximately $0.38, derived from the flagpole projection. A sustained impulse could extend toward $0.40 if volume and market breadth support the move.

How should traders factor in Hedera’s TVL and stablecoin figures?

Traders should account for limited TVL (~$220M) and stablecoin supply (~$86M) as liquidity constraints that can amplify volatility and cap sustainable upside during rapid inflows.

Key Takeaways

• Technical setup: Bullish flag + double‑bottom suggests upside to $0.38–$0.40.
• Catalyst: Canary HBAR ETF progress could boost institutional buying and liquidity.
• Risk management: Monitor 200‑day EMA and $0.1230 support; limited TVL/stablecoin supply increases downside risk.

Conclusion

HBAR price presents a technically bullish case supported by a flag formation, double‑bottom, and Elliot Wave positioning, with potential ETF approval as a significant catalyst. However, ecosystem liquidity metrics warrant caution. COINOTAG will continue monitoring price action, ETF developments, and on‑chain data for confirmation and risk management guidance.

HBAR price outlook: bullish flag and Elliot Wave point to $0.38–$0.40 potential; watch ETF timing and ecosystem liquidity for confirmation. Read COINOTAG analysis.

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