Hayes argues halving no longer

Bitcoin cycle dead — Arthur Hayes argues the classic four‑year rhythm may be losing its hold amid a monetary policy shift and rising fiat liquidity. The claim is contested and worth scrutiny.

Arthur hayes bitcoin: reassessing the four‑year pattern

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, is associated with an essay titled “Long Live the King!” in which he argues that past Bitcoin bear markets were driven more by monetary tightening than by halving mechanics.

Publication details for the essay have not been independently verified here; readers should consult Hayes’s direct channels for the primary source. That said, his view reframes the debate about what drives Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin halving relevance and the april 2024 halving

The fourth Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, cutting miner rewards and slowing new coin issuance. Historically, halvings have coincided with major market cycles, but their price impact has varied as institutional participation and macro liquidity evolved. Thus, halving remains relevant but not always decisive.

Observers point out that a fiat liquidity increase and shifts in the global money supply can amplify or mute halving effects.

When central banks expand balance sheets, more capital can flow into risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, policy tightening tends to withdraw liquidity and pressure risk markets.

Federal reserve easing and the monetary policy shift

Hayes highlights expectations of easier policy in major economies as a central reason the four‑year rhythm might not reassert itself. Specific forecasts for rate moves remain uncertain; therefore this article does not endorse particular numerical predictions. For official guidance, see the Federal Reserve.

In practice, trading desks reduce leverage and increase hedging when they anticipate regime shifts. They monitor futures funding rates, open interest, exchange flows and custody inflows to assess whether fresh liquidity is entering Bitcoin. Custodians and OTC desks widen accumulation windows around macro events to manage execution risk and client flows.

Quotes and authoritative context

The Federal Reserve’s public mandate frames how markets interpret policy moves: “to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long‑term interest rates,” which traders parse for clues on future liquidity. Media analysis has also argued that halving effects interact with macro liquidity trends; see commentary at CoinDesk.

If Hayes’s thesis holds, investors should broaden analysis beyond calendar dates. That means combining on‑chain supply metrics with macro indicators, derivatives positioning and institutional flow data. In practice, adaptive risk management — including scaled entries and active hedging — tends to offer more resilience than relying solely on halving‑date timing.

Conclusion: The assertion that the bitcoin cycle is dead invites scrutiny rather than blind acceptance. Ultimately, whether the four‑year cadence fades depends on how much monetary policy and liquidity flows continue to dominate price formation. For further reading, visit our Bitcoin section and our how‑to guide.