has the long-awaited bull run begun?

The hypothesis that a new major Bitcoin bull run may have already started is increasingly circulating.

In reality, there has already been a mini-bull run, as in less than four months the price has gone from less than $30,000 to about $50,000, with an 87% increase since October 15, 2023 that cannot be simply dismissed as a normal rebound. 

However, the issue at hand could be of even greater magnitude, to the point that there are bets on a possible return near the all-time highs, around $70,000 in November 2021. After all, $50,000 was the level it had dropped to the following month, December 2021, before the true bear market began. 

The $70,000 hypothesis: Is a Bitcoin bull run coming?

On the specialized crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, several calls for $65,000, $70,000, or even $75,000 started to appear over the weekend.

The reference point is $70,000, which is the closest round figure to the all-time high of $69,000, although in reality it ranges from $65,000 to $75,000.

These are bets, or rather just hypotheses that some people consider probable, and not just possible. 

Kelly Greer from Galaxy reports that there is a concentration of open interest around the current $50,000, but there are also call flows from $50,000 to $75,000 for options expiring from April to June.

It should be remembered that in mid-April there will be the fourth Bitcoin halving, and it is possible that this will be the endpoint of the current mini-bull run.

Greer points out that these flows demonstrate that there are buyers willing to pay a premium to take on these positions, suggesting that several investors have a bullish view on BTC.

The April halving

Two other important elements need to be added to all of this. 

The first is the similarity of the price trend of Bitcoin at the beginning of 2024 with that of the beginning of 2021. Three years ago, the peak of that real bull run was $64,000 in April.

However, it should be remembered that the bull run actually started just above $10,000, so at the peak in April the gain had been over 500%. However, if only the first 4 months of the year are taken into consideration, the price rose from $30,000 in January to over $60,000 in April, with a significant +100%.

Taking as reference the $38,000 reached in January 2024, or even the $30,000 at the end of October 2023, in case of a new +100% the price would oscillate between approximately $60,000 and $75,000. 

Then, just like what happened with the launch of the new ETFs on Bitcoin spot, as soon as the halving occurs, the usual sell the news could trigger, and the price could drop a bit. 

The second element is precisely the anticipation of the halving, which perhaps is at the basis of the capital inflows on the ETFs.

Even in this case, once the halving occurs, such inflows could decrease, leading to a correction. 

There could therefore be a first phase of further growth until the halving in April, followed by an intermediate phase of correction or retracement until June. 

The bearish hypothesis

However, there is also another hypothesis circulating, diametrically opposed. 

According to some, reaching the psychological threshold of $50,000 could trigger sales for those who want to monetize their earnings. 

In fact, practically everyone who purchased in 2023 and 2024 would be in profit, except for a portion of those who purchased yesterday. In the event that the dynamic that supported the price growth until yesterday were to be interrupted, these sales could cause the price to drop.

A lot revolves around the BTC purchases of ETFs, and this in turn depends on the influx of new capital into these new derivative products. 

The above data would suggest a continuation of these purchases, but it should not be assumed that those who bought in recent weeks will decide not to sell in anticipation of even better prices. 

The fact is that the demand for Bitcoin from ETFs is much higher than the amount of new BTC created daily through mining, and this gap is expected to widen with the halving, which will reduce the rate of new BTC creation.

Michael Saylor reported this during a recent interview with CNBC, claiming that there would be a whopping ten years of pent-up demand unleashed by these ETFs.

Bitcoin: the comparison with past bull runs

All of this, however, clashes with the comparison with the past. 

Usually, in fact, in the year of the halving, there has never been a real big bull run. 

All three past halvings have indeed been followed by a major bull run, but the following year. This time, however, the bull run may have already started even before the halving, and this difference perplexes many. 

It could therefore also be not a real new major bull run, like those of 2013, 2017, and 2021, but a speculative mini-bubble like, for example, the one in mid-2019.

The problem with this interpretation, however, is that in the past, new all-time highs have always been achieved during a major bull run, and not during the mini-bubbles following the bear market.

In short, Bitcoin finds itself in an unprecedented situation, different from the past, due to a huge novelty that had never existed before (BTC spot ETFs in the USA). 

This in theory could have the strength to completely disrupt the historical dynamics of the past three halvings, writing a whole new story in which the past may not repeat itself anymore. 

It should not be forgotten that when the first gold ETFs were launched on the US financial markets, a bull run was unleashed that lasted for years.