Google’s Gemini Leads AI Prediction Market on Kalshi

In the prediction market on Kalshi, Google’s Gemini leads with 86% odds in the competition for the best AI by 2025, surpassing OpenAI’s ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok..

The shifting odds highlight Gemini’s increasing dominance, with implications for AI development priorities and investment strategies until final settlement based on LM Arena’s rankings in December 2025.

Google Gemini Surges in AI Prediction with 86% Lead

Market participants have shown support for Gemini, contrasting OpenAI’s ChatGPT standing at 8% and xAI’s Grok at 6% probability. There were no available statements from CEOs or KOLs reacting to this shift.

AI Market Dynamics: From ChatGPT’s 41% to Gemini’s Dominance

Did you know? Earlier in 2023, ChatGPT held a commanding 41% compared to Gemini’s 30%—a stark reversal as rivals’ probabilities diminish.

The Kalshi market change follows intensified competition among AI leaders. This reflects a broader trend in AI development, where investment and technical advancement drive market confidence. These odds could influence future AI funding and strategic business planning.

As the end of 2025 approaches, observers anticipate further shifts based on LM Arena’s rankings. With Gemini leading by a considerable margin, investors and industry watchers are closely monitoring for any regulatory outcomes or technological breakthroughs that could affect positions.

Google (Gemini), implied probability of 75-86% on Kalshi; dominates LM Arena rankings with score 148.