Goldman Sachs Sees Stablecoin Market Reaching Trillions as Rules Tighten

Goldman Sachs says the market for U.S. dollar-backed cryptocurrencies, or stablecoins, could swell from about $271 billion today to several trillions of dollars as clearer regulation opens the door to mass adoption for payments and settlements.

In a research note led by analyst Will Nance, the bank argues the sector’s potential mirrors the roughly $240 trillion in annual payment volume estimated by Visa. Goldman forecasts that Circle’s USDC alone could add $77 billion in circulation between 2024 and 2027, a compound annual growth rate of 40%.

Policy makers appear receptive. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said stablecoins will reinforce the dollar’s reserve-currency role and lift demand for the short-dated U.S. Treasuries that back the tokens. The newly proposed GENIUS Act would align state and federal oversight, giving issuers a uniform rulebook.

The bond-market impact is hotly debated. A Bank for International Settlements study found that large inflows into stablecoins can trim three-month Treasury yields by up to 2.5 basis points, while outflows raise them even more. UBS economist Paul Donovan counters that the instruments may simply shift, rather than expand, demand for government debt.

Industry researchers continue to raise adoption estimates. Digital-asset firm KeyrockTrading projects stablecoin payment flows could surpass $1 trillion a year by 2030, supporting Goldman’s view that programmable, dollar-denominated tokens are poised to become a major global payments rail.

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