GENIUS Act, ETF Odds, and Fed Rate Cut Signal an ‘Altseason’

• GENIUS Act passed Senate; Trump supports rapid House approval for stablecoin regulation.
• Bloomberg raised altcoin ETF approval odds to 95% amid strong SEC engagement.
• Fed eyes July rate cut; Ohio moves to exempt sub-$200 Bitcoin payments from tax.

A series of significant developments in U.S. crypto regulation, monetary policy, and institutional adoption are creating a bullish outlook for the altcoin market. Analysts now point to a combination of these factors for an immediate “Altseason.”

Key catalysts include the U.S. Senate’s passage of a federal stablecoin framework, signals of a potential July interest rate cut from Federal Reserve, and dramatically increased approval odds for a slew of spot altcoin ETFs

Regulatory Clarity Emerges with GENIUS Act

The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on June 17 with a 68–30 bipartisan support, establishing the first federal framework for stablecoins. The bill includes reserve audits, consumer protections, and anti-money-laundering measures for issuers. With bipartisan support, it now moves to the House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump urged lawmakers to approve the bill without delay. In a post on X, he wrote, 

“Digital Assets are the future, and our Nation is going to own it.” 

Trump’s administration has prioritized crypto integration, including plans for a national Bitcoin reserve and a Digital Asset Summit at the White House.

As a result, major crypto-related stocks surged. Coinbase jumped 17%, while Circle gained over 30% intraday. At the same time, White House crypto advisor David Sacks confirmed the bill is “very close” to becoming law.

Federal Reserve Signals July Rate Cut

In parallel, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on June 21 that a rate cut could be possible as early as July. He pointed to easing inflation and said the Fed should act before job market weakness appears. Although other Fed officials remain cautious, Waller’s remarks boosted expectations for monetary easing in the coming months.

At the state level, Ohio took a major step by passing the Blockchain Basics Act. This bill exempts Bitcoin payments under $200 from state capital gains tax. It aims to simplify crypto use for small daily transactions like tips, purchases, and transfers. If approved by the state Senate, the law would make Ohio one of the most crypto-friendly jurisdictions in the U.S.

Related: Analyst Forecasts Imminent “Altseason” Fueled by Key US CPI Data and Bitcoin Strength

Institutional Access Expands with 93% ETF Approval Odds

Meanwhile, Bloomberg analysts raised the odds of altcoin ETF approvals to 93%, citing strong engagement between asset managers and the SEC. ETFs tied to Solana, XRP, and Litecoin are likely to launch first, followed by applications for Cardano, Dogecoin, and Avalanche.

In addition, the DTCC confirmed that it met with the SEC and U.S. Crypto Task Force to discuss blockchain tokenization tools. The talks focused on how traditional finance infrastructure can integrate with public blockchain systems. Market insiders described the meeting as a significant step toward institutional blockchain adoption.

Taken together, these developments suggest the crypto market is entering a new phase. With regulatory clarity increasing, monetary policy shifting, and institutional access expanding, the foundations for the next altseason appear to be in place. However, many market participants still focus on short-term price moves, overlooking the scale of transformation already underway.