- Gemini gains CFTC approval, allowing regulated prediction markets to launch for U.S. users.
- New Gemini Titan platform lets customers trade event contracts using existing USD balances.
- Prediction-market industry surges with rising volumes from Polymarket, Kalshi, and new entrants.
Gemini has received an important approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing it to operate as a Designated Contract Market and launch its Gemini Titan prediction platform in the United States.
With this licence, the exchange can now offer binary event contracts on Gemini Titan, marking its entry into the fast growing prediction markets sector under a regulated futures style framework.
U.S. Users Will Soon Trade Event Contracts
Gemini said that U.S. customers will soon be able to trade event contracts directly through the platform’s web interface using the USD already in their Gemini accounts. Support on the Gemini mobile app will follow.
These markets let users predict real-world outcomes, such as elections, economic data, sports results, and major global events, by buying contracts tied to “yes” or “no” outcomes.
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Gemini Approval Seen As A Turning Point For Prediction Markets
Tyler Winklevoss said Gemini’s approval shows that U.S. regulators are now willing to treat prediction markets as a legitimate and scalable financial sector. “The move into this nascent and burgeoning frontier continues Gemini’s march towards building a one-stop financial super app for customers. Onward,” he said.
A DCM licence places Gemini Titan in the same regulatory category as major futures exchanges such as CME and ICE, which handle interest-rate and commodities futures.
A Fast Growing Prediction Market Industry
Gemini first applied for a DCM licence in March 2020. Its approval comes at a time when interest in prediction markets is at record highs.
Prediction markets have surged in credibility since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and companies are now moving in fast. Even Trump Media & Technology Group has stepped in, teaming with Crypto.com to release its new platform, Truth Predict.
The prediction-markets sector has been expanding fast:
- The industry’s total addressable market could reach $95 billion by 2035, growing at 46% per year.
- Venture firms have invested $2.67 billion into the sector this year.
- Polymarket and Kalshi together account for 98% of all prediction-market volume.
- Polymarket saw $11 billion in trading volume in Q4 2024 around the U.S. election, and may cross $20 billion for the year.
- Kalshi recorded more than $5.8 billion in notional trading in November alone.
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