FF Technical Analysis Jan 24

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

FF’s 24-hour trading volume was realized at the 12.84 million dollar level, indicating low participation compared to recent period averages. Although the price is hovering around 0.09 dollars with a slight 0.10% drop, this calm in volume questions the conviction of the downtrend. Among market participants, retail-focused movements dominate; there are no large volume spikes, suggesting that institutional players are waiting on the sidelines. Examining the volume profile, in the 1D timeframe, the value area is concentrated at low levels (0.088-0.092 band), while naked POCs form support around 0.0843. For a healthy volume structure, we would expect at least 20-30% increase in upticks, but the volume decrease in current down moves may signal a bullish divergence. Comparatively, volume 15% below the last 7-day average emphasizes the lack of participation – the price drop is not supported by sellers, buyers may be quietly accumulating positions.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Despite the downtrend, the price holding above EMA20 (0.09) with declining volume evokes a classic accumulation pattern. RSI at 50.30 is neutral, MACD histogram is positive – volume divergence is clear here: volume shrinks at price lows, increasing the likelihood of smart money picking up bottoms. MTF volume levels (10 strong levels: 3S/2R on 1D) are support-weighted, the 0.0881 volume node (70/100 score) shows strong grip. In the last 24h, volume contraction in down candles (less than 10%), slight increase in upticks – this resembles the Wyckoff accumulation phase. Ideal accumulation zone for FF Spot Analysis, long setups can be monitored in FF Futures Analysis as well.

Distribution Risks

If Supertrend is bearish and there’s strong volume rejection at 0.11 resistance, low-volume rallies could be distribution traps. 4R/1S imbalance on 3D timeframe indicates whales may unload at upper levels. If BTC dominance rises, FF volume could dry up and distribution accelerate – watch for volume spike at 0.0923 resistance for confirmation.

Price-Volume Alignment

Although price is in a downtrend, volume does not confirm the price action: volume 25% lower in down moves, which is unhealthy – no conviction. MACD bullish cross remains weak without volume, divergence sought while RSI is stuck at 50. Volume expansion is essential for a healthy uptrend: volume should increase 50%+ en route to 0.1392 target. In the current setup, price is above EMA20 but volume is lagging, giving short-term bullish bias but wait for confirmation. 1W volume profile is flat, institutional footprint is low – retail-driven moves carry reversal risk.

Big Player Activity

Big player signals are limited: no high-volume block trades in 24h volume, whale accumulation signal weak in chain data. However, volume clusters at supports (0.0881) could indicate stealth buying – OBV flat but CMF turning positive. For distribution, watch volume surge in 0.0923-0.1549 band. Institutional patterns: low volume down = potential trap, high volume up = conviction.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at 89,658$, slight +0.14% recovery but Supertrend bearish – caution for altcoins. FF partially decoupling from BTC: if BTC tests supports at 88,400/86,626 while FF volume stays low, it gains relative strength. If BTC breaks 89,664 resistance, FF’s 0.1392 bullish target activates; rising dominance pushes FF bearish to 0.0367. Key BTC levels: expect FF volume dry-up under 88,400.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook: Short-term accumulation bias, low conviction downtrend reversal potential. Targets: Bull 0.1392 (volume confirmation required), Bear 0.0367 (BTC drag). Trade: Long on 0.0881 support hold with volume increase, short on 0.0923 rejection. Educational note: Volume always leads price – current contraction is a bullish wildcard.