FedWatch Signals 93.4% Chance of December Rate Cut

Ahead of October’s CPI release, CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 98.3% probability for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with FOMC meetings scheduled for October 29th and December 10th.

These probabilities affect market sentiment, driving potential asset movements, notably influencing Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Solana, amid broader economic policy and regulatory developments.

CME FedWatch Predicts 98.3% December Rate Cut

CME’s projection suggests a high probability of monetary policy changes by the end of the year, influencing financial markets and investor strategies. The anticipation of a rate cut has led to increased market activity, with funding rates and derivative positioning reflecting expected movements. Explore the Weex market for cryptocurrencies.

Recent market movements show a significant shift in sentiment. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has surpassed $110,000, influenced by regulatory developments and expectations for lower interest rates. This reflects widespread optimism in the crypto market, as traders position for potentially favorable conditions.

“Last Friday, I closed all my short positions and fully switched to long perpetual contract positions. And now the market has given a strong confirmation—last Friday was likely the key bottom, and funds have finally started to flow from gold to Bitcoin…I remain extremely bullish on the market and still firmly believe that BTC will surpass $200,000 and ETH will surpass $10,000” — Nachi, Binance Trader

Bitcoin Price Surge Amid Fed Rate Expectations

Did you know? High FedWatch rate cut probabilities have historically coincided with short-term Bitcoin rallies, highlighting a typical “risk-on” response from investors during periods of anticipated monetary easing.

Bitcoin (BTC), trading at $110,667.70, with a market cap of $2.21 trillion, demonstrates a 24-hour price increase of 2.07%. With a 24-hour trading volume of $52.62 billion, its circulating supply stands at about 19.94 million BTC out of a max 21 million. CoinMarketCap reported these stats as of October 24, 2025.

Coincu’s research team anticipates potential ripple effects in regulatory and technological areas. The forecasted Fed rate changes may accelerate developments in stablecoins and blockchain regulation, leading to increased adoption and innovation in financial technology and digital currency systems. Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and its implications are a focal area for investors monitoring the broader impact on economic stability and digital assets.