FedWatch Predicts September Interest Rate Cuts Likely

CME’s FedWatch tool projects an 86.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Financial markets are closely monitoring potential changes, affecting cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with significant implications for liquidity and investor sentiment.

FedWatch Predicts 86.4% Chance of Rate Cut

CME’s FedWatch data indicates a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September. Market participants are paying close attention, given the potential impact on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The latest market consensus from CME’s “FedWatch” tool indicates an 86.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in September, versus a 13.6% chance of rates being held steady.

Should the Fed reduce rates, asset prices, particularly in the crypto sector, may see shifts. Ethereum inflows of $27.3 million suggest investor positioning, while Polygon’s $30.5 million outflow raises questions on sentiment toward certain assets.

While no official commentary from influential market leaders was made, industry speculation surrounds how Bitcoin and other digital assets might respond to such policy moves. This speculation continues as financial analysts debate potential outcomes.

Bitcoin’s $2.17 Trillion Market Cap Amid Fed Speculation

Did you know? Past rate cuts have often led to initial market reactions of volatility and adjustments, followed by cryptocurrency rebounds, highlighting the complex interplay between traditional financial policies and emergent digital assets.

As of August 30, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) holds a price of $108,731.49 with a market cap at $2.17 trillion. Its 24-hour trading volume decreased by 16.35%, showing a 0.49% price change. This data stems from CoinMarketCap, indicating recent market responses.

According to the Coincu research team, if the Fed proceeds with the expected rate cut, financial flows could pivot to high-beta assets, particularly altcoins and DeFi tokens, drawing parallels to historical macro-economic cycles. These shifts can also be influenced by other economic indicators such as the Commerce Department’s Q2 GDP data, which focus on blockchain and could shape investors’ expectations in the realm of digital currencies.