- The Fed’s potential December rate cut probability rises as new economic data shapes market expectations.
- 41.6% probability for a 25 bps cut after jobs data.
- Increased interest in cryptocurrency investments amid monetary policy shifts.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 41.6% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December following weak US jobs data released November 20, 2025.
This potential rate cut influenced cryptocurrency markets with BTC reaching $68,500 and ETH surging past $3,000, reflecting market anticipation of looser monetary policy.
September Jobs Data Sparks 41.6% Fed Rate Cut Odds
Weaker-than-expected September jobs data sparked a shift in market sentiment towards a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December 2025. The non-farm payroll increase of 187,000, coupled with a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, contributed to this change.
Bitcoin surged to $68,500, reflecting the market’s anticipation of looser monetary policy. The potential for a rate reduction has impacted various asset classes, with positive trajectories in cryptocurrencies and notable movements in the equity markets.
Key figures such as Arthur Hayes expressed optimism, stating, “The Fed is finally starting to blink.”
Bitcoin Climbs Amid Fed Speculation and Past Trends
Did you know? In December 2023, similar market responses to weak payroll data increased the rate cut probability, leading to a Bitcoin rally of 12% over two days.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) is valued at $91,005.71, with a market cap of $1.82 trillion. The circulating supply stands at 19,950,600 against a max supply of 21,000,000. Trading volume reached $86.60 billion, reflecting a 23.17% increase. Recent shifts include a 21.56% drop over 90 days, showcasing market volatility. The data was last updated at 14:48 UTC on November 20, 2025.
Insights from the Coincu research team highlight potential shifts in institutional behavior, with predictions of increased capital influx into crypto markets. The implications of regulatory adjustments and interest rate expectations are pivotal in shaping the financial landscape in upcoming months, underscoring the importance of monitoring market trends.
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Source: https://coincu.com/markets/fed-rate-cut-probability-december-2/