Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge Following Dovish Comments

CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 71.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December 2025, following dovish comments from several officials.

This potential rate cut could prompt increased market activity, notably affecting cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, which typically rise with dovish monetary policy shifts.

December Rate Cut Perspectives and Market Reactions

Federal Reserve officials’ remarks have increased December rate cut expectations to 71.3% per CME’s FedWatch Tool. This comes after dovish comments at a November event. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams highlighted the situation, suggesting room for adjusting the policy stance. He stated, “I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral.”

Changes due to this speculation have seen major financial markets react positively. S&P 500 and other risk assets rallied as reduced funding costs become likely. The probability of holding rates steady is now just 8.2%, with Fed meetings on December 10 and January 28, 2026.

Market reactions have been significant, with stock market gains observed. President Donald Trump’s calls for deeper rate cuts further intensified discussions. Despite internal divisions among FOMC members, markets are preparing for potential shifts in monetary policy.

Crypto Industry Implications and Historical Parallels

Did you know? The last time Bitcoin experienced a significant uptrend due to a dovish Fed was during rate cuts in March 2020, when liquidity spikes propelled crypto assets higher in value.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently valued at $85,291.85, with a market cap of “1.70 trillion” and a market dominance of 58.38%. Recent data from CoinMarketCap highlights a -1.93% decline over 24 hours, while trading volume increased 45.55%. These changes accompany a broader -25.80% price drop over 90 days.

Experts from Coincu note potential implications for the crypto industry. An accommodative Fed policy might bolster risk-on assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as reduced funding costs increase market liquidity. Additionally, technological advancements in crypto sectors could further benefit from an easing monetary environment. Consumer Price Index by Category Line Chart Visualization.