Fed Rate Cut Expected as Jobless Claims Increase

The U.S. Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims at 235,000 for the week ending August 16, marking the highest weekly increase in eight weeks.

The unexpected rise fuels anticipation for an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut, impacting financial markets and potentially strengthening Bitcoin and Ethereum.

US Jobless Claims Surpass Forecasts, Rate Cut Eyes September

The latest jobless claims figures, released by the U.S. Department of Labor, increased by 11,000 to 235,000 for the week ending August 16. This uptick exceeds market expectations and points to potential labor market cooling. “In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 224,000… This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021,” as reported by U.S. Department of Labor.

Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities have shifted notably, with CME’s “FedWatch” tool now showing an 87.2% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September.

Market analysts anticipate increased volatility in crypto and related assets. However, no immediate responses or statements from notable figures like Jerome Powell or key players in the financial sector have been made available. The broader reaction remains focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting dates on September 17 and October 29.

Bitcoin and Ethereum May Benefit from Anticipated Fed Actions

Did you know? In April 2020, during a similar spike in jobless claims, BTC surged over 20% in less than two weeks, anticipating economic stimulus measures.

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a price of $113,078.68, representing a 1.71% increase within 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The market cap stands at 2.25 trillion, while the fully diluted market cap is approximately 2.37 trillion. Despite fluctuating, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume experienced a significant 74.91% rise, reaching about $64 billion. Historically, BTC tends to rally on expectations of lower interest rates.

Coincu’s research team suggests that financial markets might continue expecting Fed actions impacting dollar value and crypto assets. Historical trends indicate potential for increased BTC demand as traders anticipate an accommodating monetary policy, further influencing the valuation of digital currencies. Potential regulatory adjustments could align with these monetary shifts, impacting crypto asset allocations and trading strategies.