Everything AAVE buyers need to know before opening a long position

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.

• AAVE witnessed a breakout rally after an expected falling wedge reversal.
• The Development activity and the Open Interest unveiled an uptrend. What does this imply for AAVE’s price?

AAVE’s recent southbound movement halted after the buyers spurred some pressure to inflict a patterned breakout over the last few days. From a long-term perspective, the bears still refrained to give up their edge, especially with the price hovering below the 200 EMA (green).

Here’s AMBCrypto’s price prediction for AAVE for 2023-24

The current breakout rally could aid the buyers by provoking a streak of green candles. At press, AAVE traded at $82.21957, up by 3.3% in the last 24 hours.

AAVE saw a falling wedge breakout, can the bulls sustain their edge?

Source: TradingView, AAVE/USD

Soon after reversing from the $115 resistance in mid-August, AAVE fell back into its bearish track below the 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan) in the daily timeframe.

The resultant rally entailed a classic falling wedge setup on its charts. The crypto entered a low volatility phase as it squeeze near the apex of the falling wedge.

A bullish hammer candlestick marked the buyers’ intention to induce a rally. Furthermore, the bullish engulfing candlestick fueled this buying rebuttal and aided AAVE in breaking above the 20/50 EMA.  

Any rebound from the immediate support could expose AAVE to an extended upside in the coming sessions. In this case, the potential targets would rest in the $92 region. But the buyers should wait for potential bullish crossovers on the 20/50 EMA before opening a long position.

Also, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) was yet to topple its immediate resistance. To top it up, its recent peaks bearishly diverged with the price action. A plausible close above these resistances can pave a path for a solid recovery. 

An increase in development activity and Open Interest

Source: Santiment

Interestingly, the price action highly correlated with the development activity for over six months. However, since late July, the price action diverged with AAVE’s development activity. With the activity expediting solidly, the price was yet to follow.

Source: Coinglass

Moreover, an analysis of AAVE’s Futures Open Interest revealed a rather bullish sign. It saw an over 38% jump over the past day while the price increased by nearly 3.3%. However, an unusually high Open Interest could also hint at a potential reversal.

Finally, AAVE shared a 46% 30-day correlation with Bitcoin. Hence, keeping a close watch on the king coin’s movement would be vital in making a profitable bet.