 
 
Altcoin markets are showing early technical signals that a major rotation could be forming ahead of 2026. Analysts point to the first quarter of next year as a potential inflection point.
Recent charts tracking altcoin dominance suggest multiple bullish divergences are holding, and this pattern has historically preceded upside reversals.
Analysts tracking these metrics argue that Ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Shiba Inu may be approaching a phase in which they begin to reclaim market share after months of relative underperformance against Bitcoin.
That said, a widely shared macro ratio model comparing altcoin performance to Bitcoin dominance, gold, the U.S. Dollar Index, and the 10-year Treasury yield points to a familiar setup.
History shows that sustained altcoin rallies tend to emerge when the dollar weakens, bond yields ease, Bitcoin’s dominance declines, and gold stabilizes.
 
According to the model, current conditions closely resemble late 2020, with November and December 2025 mirroring the structure seen just before the last major altcoin expansion.
Analysts argue that even if Bitcoin dominance rises temporarily, the broader structure remains intact, suggesting the cycle may be delayed rather than broken.
Furthermore, macro perspectives reinforce this timing. Investor Raoul Pal believes the traditional four-year crypto cycle has stretched into a five-year structure due to extended debt maturities and delayed liquidity.
Pal points to the ISM Manufacturing Index as a critical trigger, noting that previous rallies in Bitcoin and Ethereum often coincided with ISM readings above 50, followed by strength across altcoins.
The investor estimates the liquidity cycle could peak around the second quarter of 2026, aligning with expectations that meaningful risk appetite will return once quantitative tightening fully ends.
Despite the bullish outlook, market data shows altcoins are not yet in control.
The CMC Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 18 out of 100, firmly in Bitcoin season territory and well below its yearly high of 78 recorded in September 2025.
Even so, selective strength has emerged, with several altcoins posting triple- and quadruple-digit gains over the past 90 days.