DOT Technical Analysis Feb 14

DOT is still maintaining the LH/LL structure in the downtrend, but reaching the $1.35 level with a 6.57% rise in the last 24 hours, could it give a short-term CHoCH signal? Market structure analysis provides clear answers to whether the trend will continue or reverse.

Market Structure Overview

Polkadot (DOT) is exhibiting a clear downtrend in the current market structure. It has moved away from the Higher Highs/Higher Lows (HH/HL) structure and confirmed the Lower Highs/Lower Lows (LH/LL) pattern. The current price is at the $1.35 level and trading in the $1.25-$1.35 range with a 24-hour change of +6.57%. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and resistance is positioned at $1.67. No close above EMA20 ($1.48) reinforces the short-term bearish structure. In the Multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 15 strong levels were detected across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances in 1D, 2S/2R in 3D, 2S/4R distribution in 1W, with resistance dominance prevailing in higher timeframes. RSI at 34.92 is approaching the oversold region, while the MACD shows a positive histogram indicating bullish divergence; however, structurally the downtrend continues. This analysis clarifies the trend’s status using swing points, BOS, and CHoCH concepts.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

Bullish signals are limited in the downtrend. The rise from the $1.25 swing low to $1.35 in the last 24 hours could form a potential higher low (HL), but HH has not yet been confirmed. The MACD histogram turning positive and RSI bottoming around 35 indicate a short-term momentum shift. For bullish continuation, a weekly close above the $1.3778 swing high (BOS) is required. Breaking this level could open the path to the $2.0300 structural target (score:30/100). However, as long as it remains under the current LH/LL, these are just counter-trend rallies. Educational note: HH/HL structure requires consecutive higher swings for trend continuation; this is not present here yet.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend dominates: Rejection from the recent swing high at $1.3778 and lower low at $1.25 confirming LL. The LH pattern from the previous $1.6727 high continues. If $1.3317 support breaks, LH/LL deepens toward $1.2530 and $1.1010. Bearish breakdown target is $0.4395 (score:22/100). Supertrend bearish and staying below EMA20 increases short-term risk. To watch: Daily close below $1.3317 confirms bearish CHoCH. In a downtrend, LLs sustain selling pressure; reversal requires HL + HH BOS.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) confirms trend changes. Bullish BOS: Daily/weekly close above $1.3778 swing high (score:75/100). This breaks LH and signals transition to HL pattern; next target $1.6727 (score:62). Bearish BOS: Close below $1.3317 swing low (score:64), extending LL toward $1.2530 (61) and $1.1010 (62). CHoCH (Change of Character): Price quickly rejecting the last swing high/low shows momentum shift. Current $1.35 has stabilized above $1.3317; this is critical. BOS levels are strong in MTF: 1W resistances above $1.67 dominant. Breakouts must be confirmed with volume; watch for fakeouts.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $1.3778 (strongest, score:75) – short-term resistance, BOS level. $1.6727 (score:62) – medium-term resistance, peak of the downtrend. These levels define the LH pattern; bearish remains valid while below them. Importance: Breakout initiates HH, milestone for trend reversal. Current price $1.35 approaching $1.3778; rejection brings $1.25 test.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $1.3317 (64/100) – immediate support, base of recent rally. $1.2530 (61) – nearby support, 24h low. $1.1010 (62) – deep support. These LLs confirm the downtrend; breakout brings bearish acceleration. Importance: HL formation required for reversal; holding above $1.3317 extends counter-trend rally. Swings should be confirmed with Fibonacci and volume.

Bitcoin Correlation

DOT is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; despite BTC at $68,850 with +3.55%, it’s in a downtrend. BTC supports: $68,784, $65,415, $60,000. Resistances: $71,248, $75,118, $78,145. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance create pressure on altcoins. DOT’s $1.35 rally is with BTC support; if BTC breaks $68,784, DOT tests $1.25. BTC $71,248 BOS allows DOT to $1.67. Watch: BTC MTF structure dominates DOT; BTC stabilization required for altcoin season. Details in DOT Spot Analysis and DOT Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Current structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend continues; short-term bounce possible while $1.3317 holds, but limited without $1.3778 BOS. Bearish scenario: $1.3317 break extends LL to $1.10 target. Bullish invalidation: Close above $1.3778+ initiates HH/HL. MTF resistance weight requires caution; track RSI divergence. Lack of news highlights technical structure. Traders should use swings with risk management. Market structures are dynamic; follow updates.