Dogecoin’s decline: Can DOGE recover from its 95% drop in activity?

• Dogecoin’s network activity has dropped 95%, and its price struggles to maintain momentum.
• Declining transaction counts, MVRV ratio, and negative sentiment suggest limited recovery potential for DOGE.

Dogecoin [DOGE] has seen a sharp 95% drop in its network activity, with active addresses plummeting from 2.66 million in November 2024 to just 130,282 at press time. 

Dogecoin’s price was $0.2101 at this time, showing a modest 2.42% increase in the last 24 hours. This steep decline in activity could suggest that Dogecoin struggled to maintain momentum amidst broader market challenges. 

What does price action say about Dogecoin’s future?

AMBCrypto’s look at Dogecoin’s price action showed that it had been in a steady downtrend in a symmetrical triangle after reaching a peak of $0.41796. 

The price was sitting near $0.2101 at press time, with support found around the $0.17594 mark.

However, there are key resistance levels that could influence future movements, namely $0.27155 and $0.31413. 

If DOGE fails to hold above $0.2100, it could face further losses. Additionally, the RSI was trending lower, indicating continued selling pressure.

Therefore, Dogecoin may struggle to break free from its current downtrend unless it sees a major shift in market sentiment.

Source: TradingView

Declining transaction count suggests…

Transaction count data painted a similar picture, with DOGE showing consistent declines in daily transactions since its peak activity in late 2024.

Although sporadic spikes have occurred, transaction volume has significantly dropped, signaling lower network activity. 

This trend suggested that DOGE’s user base was shrinking, which is a crucial indicator of its long-term health.

The lack of new transactions further highlighted the disinterest in the coin, especially when compared to its prior enthusiasm.

Source: Santiment

Moderate decline in DOGE’s MVRV Ratio

Dogecoin’s MVRV Ratio decreased to 40.63%, indicating a moderate decline from its previous highs.

Although not yet in negative territory, this decrease points to the possibility that DOGE might be slightly overvalued relative to its current market activity.

Investors are facing less profitable conditions, which may lead to more sell-offs in the short term.

If the MVRV ratio continues to drop, it could signal that the coin is not experiencing the bullish sentiment it once had. Therefore, Dogecoin may struggle to rally until its MVRV ratio shows signs of improvement.

Source: Santiment

The weight of market sentiment on Dogecoin

Dogecoin’s Weighted Sentiment has plunged to -0.999971, highlighting the overwhelmingly negative outlook surrounding the coin. This drastic shift in sentiment follows the decrease in network activity and price action. 

When sentiment is so negative, it becomes increasingly difficult for the coin to attract new investors. Therefore, DOGE’s chances of recovery seem slim unless significant catalysts emerge to boost investor confidence.

Source: Santiment

Can Dogecoin recover from its decline?

Given the combination of falling network activity, declining transaction counts, negative sentiment, and a downward price trajectory, it is unlikely that Doge will experience a quick recovery. 

Without a substantial shift in its fundamentals or a strong market catalyst, Dogecoin is at risk of further declines. At this moment, the chances for Dogecoin to regain its previous highs appear slim.