Dogecoin: Why this cycle can have DOGE’s most sustainable rally yet

Key Takeaways

Why is Dogecoin’s setup so significant now?

DOGE is retesting a key historical level where past breakouts led to rallies of up to 446%, with signals pointing to another possible +520% surge.

What factors are supporting this bullish setup?

Smart money accumulation, $30M exchange outflows, and a 78.84% long bias suggest strong hands are preparing for a breakout while retail activity remains muted.

Dogecoin [DOGE] is testing a decisive level that has historically triggered massive rallies, raising speculation about a potential breakout. 

Previous rallies of +84%, +194%, and +446% followed similar setups, and analysts are now questioning if a +520% surge could follow. 

At the same time, retail activity remains muted, with “smart money” driving momentum, while exchange netflows highlight continued outflows. 

Moreover, long positions dominate, showing market confidence. These factors combined place Dogecoin at a critical junction where bullish momentum could expand significantly.

Source: TradingView

Smart money sustains the momentum

Retail participation has not yet ignited, and the Futures Retail Activity metric remained neutral.

This was in contrast to past retail-driven rallies that quickly reversed, such as May 2021 when DOGE peaked at $0.69 before tumbling. 

Similarly, late 2024 saw a $0.46 spike collapse to $0.14 as retail enthusiasm faded. Currently, with smart money at the helm, the ongoing move appears more sustainable. 

This lack of retail frenzy highlights the possibility of further upside before broader investor speculation enters the market.

Source: CryptoQuant

Outflows from exchanges underline accumulation trends

Recent DOGE Spot Inflow/Outflow data shows consistent outflows, with a notable -$29.97M recorded on the 22nd of September. 

This suggests investors are moving tokens off exchanges, often a sign of accumulation and reduced immediate selling pressure. 

Historically, sustained exchange outflows support bullish setups by lowering available supply in spot markets. 

However, these flows must continue to reinforce confidence, as reversals into inflows may add selling weight.

For now, the outflow trend aligns with the possibility that strong hands are quietly positioning for potential upside.

Source: CoinGlass

Traders prepare for a bullish breakout

Binance’s DOGEUSDT Long/Short ratio indicated that 78.84% of accounts were holding long positions at press time, compared to just 21.16% short. This significant skew revealed traders’ conviction in a bullish continuation. 

Moreover, the Long/Short Account Ratio stood at 3.73, further confirming optimism. While such positioning often fuels breakouts, it also risks increasing volatility if sudden corrections trap over-leveraged longs. 

Nevertheless, the current tilt toward longs highlights confidence, signaling that many expect Dogecoin to clear resistance levels and sustain its bullish trajectory in coming weeks.

Source: CoinGlass

Summary

Dogecoin now faces a decisive point where technical, on-chain, and derivatives signals all align with bullish potential.

The absence of retail frenzy, strong exchange outflows, and a dominant long bias create a supportive environment for further upside. 

Historical Supertrend rallies show how quickly DOGE can accelerate after key breakouts, and the same conditions are in play now. If buyers maintain momentum, Dogecoin could replicate past explosive rallies.