A recent TradingView analysis comparing Dogecoin’s long-term price cycles from 2014 to 2022 has reignited discussion about how closely the cryptocurrency might follow its historical trajectory. The chart overlays earlier market structures on the current pattern and highlights what the creator refers to as “Cycle 3,” drawing parallels to the early formation of Dogecoin’s 2021 rally, which culminated near its all-time high of $0.73.
The analyst behind the chart suggests that repeated structural similarities “indicate a possible long-term continuation” if broader market conditions remain stable. The visual model illustrates how a gradual build-up could extend into 2026–2027 with a hypothetical path above $1.50. However, the post emphasizes that cycle overlays are interpretive—not predictive—and mainly serve as a reference for chart comparison rather than a formal dogecoin price forecast.
Current Market Conditions and Price Behavior
As of December 1, 2025, Dogecoin trades near $0.14 following a sharp daily decline of more than 6%. The move mirrors a broader pullback across major cryptocurrencies, primarily tied to Bitcoin’s renewed weakness. Historically, Dogecoin price movements correlate with Bitcoin by approximately 70%–80% during medium-term swings, though correlation does not imply predictive certainty.
Dogecoin is exhibiting patterns similar to past cycles, raising the possibility—though not guaranteed—of a parabolic move that could push DOGE above $1.50 this cycle. Source: @Bitcoinsensus via X
Market research firm Brave New Coin noted that Dogecoin continues to hold a multi-month support area that has repeatedly acted as a stabilizing zone. In a recent report, the firm wrote that “maintaining this region keeps the structure constructive,” but emphasized that sustained recovery still depends heavily on Bitcoin’s direction. Their view suggests that a stronger BTC recovery could help Dogecoin revisit the $0.80 range, though this remains conditional.
At the same time, on-chain analytics firms point to the central role of sentiment in DOGE’s volatility. Chainalysis estimates that meme assets often derive “80% to 90% of short-term volatility from social sentiment,” underscoring how speculation, community hype, and influencer commentary shape day-to-day pricing more than macroeconomic factors. This dynamic means that dogecoin predictions, especially over short horizons, should be treated cautiously.
Cycle Structures and Long-Term Outlook
The widely shared logarithmic DOGE/USD chart shows Dogecoin breaking above its 2024 high near $0.20, followed by consolidation around $0.25 in late November. The analyst presenting the chart labels this range as a potential precursor to a late-cycle expansion phase similar to the surge seen in 2021.
Dogecoin is testing key support within a 1-hour descending channel, with oversold RSI, repeated bounces near $0.1470, and proximity to the 100-MA all suggesting a potential short-term rebound toward the listed target levels. Source: CryptoAnalystSignal on TradingView
However, market context reveals a more complex picture. On October 10, Dogecoin fell nearly 63% during a swift, market-wide selloff. Although the price has since partially retraced and stabilized near $0.15, several market strategists caution that the recent recovery does not yet reflect strong buy-side accumulation.
Technical Indicators and Short-Term Analysis
Short-term chart structures show Dogecoin trading within a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe and approaching the lower boundary of that channel. From a technical perspective, traders typically view descending channels as indicators of ongoing short-term pressure unless a confirmed breakout occurs.
RSI readings on shorter timeframes have moved close to oversold territory, which sometimes suggests weakening sell momentum. Additionally, a support level near $0.1470 remains a focal point, as DOGE has previously bounced from this area. Price consolidation around the 100-period moving average may also indicate early stabilization, though moving averages alone cannot confirm directional shifts.
A bullish setup is pending a confirmed Kijun breakout at $0.1510, with a suggested stop-loss at $0.1440 and a target near $0.1620, emphasizing disciplined risk management. Source: The-Thief on TradingView
A circulating social-media trading setup recommends waiting for a confirmed breakout above the Kijun line near $0.15100 before considering long entries. While such setups can illustrate how retail traders approach the market, they should be interpreted as speculative strategies rather than formal trading guidance. The creator of the setup emphasized risk control, stating, “Avoid premature entries. Wait for confirmation to reduce fakeouts.” Their proposed target sits near $0.16200, though targets vary widely based on trader preference.
Market Weakness and Fundamental Drivers
Dogecoin’s decline below the $0.1495 support level triggered a high-volume selloff, with more than 1.56 billion DOGE traded within 24 hours. While new Dogecoin ETFs from Grayscale and Bitwise recently launched, early data suggest they have not yet captured meaningful institutional inflows.
Current metrics show:
Dogecoin price today: ~$0.14
Market cap: ~$20.9 billion
24-hour volume: ~$1.42 billion
Trend: Predominantly bearish across major moving averages
RSI: Neutral
Dogecoin is consolidating after surpassing its previous high, positioning for a potential final upward surge. Source: @TATrader_Alan via X
From a fundamental perspective, Dogecoin’s unlimited supply structure continues to present long-term challenges. Unlike capped assets, DOGE introduces new coins indefinitely, which can dilute value unless demand expands proportionally. Market behavior also shows that high-profile commentary—especially from Elon Musk—can influence short-lived rallies, although such movements often fade quickly.
Analyst Outlook: Can Dogecoin Reach $1.50?
Forecasts for 2025 remain divided and depend heavily on how the broader crypto market performs. Many near-term technical models suggest continued weakness early in the year, with potential stabilization in later quarters if market liquidity improves.
Long-term projections, including the cycle overlay suggesting a hypothetical move above $1.50 by 2027, are best viewed as conceptual scenarios rather than actionable predictions. Cycle overlays can highlight interesting structural similarities, but they have a mixed record of accuracy across crypto markets.
Dogecoin was trading at around $0.14, down 4.23% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
At present, there is no strong technical evidence supporting a rapid return to the $1 level. Even so, interest in Dogecoin remains persistent, and the asset continues to hold a notable position within the cryptocurrency market. As with all speculative assets, the dogecoin price outlook depends on a combination of market conditions, liquidity cycles, community engagement, and macro-level sentiment—with no guaranteed outcomes.