DOGE, while maintaining its overall downtrend structure, has reached the $0.11 level with a short-term 3.89% rise, signaling in the oversold region with RSI 31.53; however, MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance appears dominant below $0.13, a cautious approach is essential.
Executive Summary
Dogecoin (DOGE), as of February 3, 2026, is trading at $0.11, maintaining the dominant downtrend structure. Although short-term recovery signals (RSI oversold, volume increase) are present, position below EMA20, bearish MACD, and Supertrend resistance reinforce the overall bearish bias. If critical support at $0.0946 is not held, bear target of $0.0634 may come into play; upside, the $0.1171-$0.13 resistance zone should be tested. Bitcoin’s bearish trend carries additional risk for altcoins – cautious short or range trading recommendation.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
DOGE’s higher timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W) continue to show clear downtrend dominance. Although price has broken out of the $0.10-$0.11 range with a 3.89% rise in the last 24 hours, the overall structure does not confirm higher high/lower low breakdown. Supertrend indicator is in bearish signal and positions $0.13 as resistance. Remaining below short-term EMA20 ($0.12) confirms short-term bearish momentum. In multi-timeframe analysis, 12 strong levels detected: 1D 1 support/3 resistance, 3D 2S/2R, 1W 2S/4R distribution – resistance weight strengthens downtrend.
Structural Levels
Structurally, recent swing lows cluster around $0.0946 (strong support, score 73/100). For bullish structure break, weekly resistance at $0.1656 (score 63/100) must be surpassed, but current price is 33% below this level. Fibonacci retracements form strong resistance at 0.5 level ($0.1078, score 80/100). Pivot point calculations keep around $0.11 neutral, but downtrend channel upper band $0.1171 (score 61/100) first test point.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 31.53 points to oversold region, offering short-term bounce potential – divergence below 30 expected. MACD histogram negative and below signal line, bearish crossover confirmation with momentum decline continuing. Stochastic %K/%D in 20/25 range, oversold rebound signal but bearish divergence present. CCI near -120, showing stabilization after extreme selling. Overall momentum confluence: Short-term bullish divergence, medium-term bearish.
Trend Indicators
EMA crossovers bearish: Price below EMA20 ($0.12), EMA50 ($0.13), and EMA200 ($0.15). Death cross (EMA50/200) active, golden cross required for uptrend reversal. Supertrend in bearish mode, trailing stop at $0.13 resistance. Price below Ichimoku cloud, bearish with tenkan/kijun death cross. ADX at 28 confirms strong trend (down). All trend indicators converge in downtrend.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: $0.0946 (73/100, swing low + Fib 0.618), $0.08 (psychological + prior low). On breakdown, $0.0634 bear target (22 score, volume profile low). Resistances: $0.1078 (80/100, pivot R1 + Fib 0.5), $0.1171 (61/100, channel upper), $0.13 Supertrend + EMA50, $0.1656 (63/100, weekly high). Multi-TF confluence: 1W resistances dominant, 3D supports critical. Price close above $0.1078 bullish trigger; below $0.0946 bear confirmation.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume $1.34B, 20% above 7-day average – volume spike accompanying rise indicates short covering. However, OBV in falling trend, no accumulation. Price above VWAP $0.109, shows intraday buyer interest but distribution signals dominant in downtrend. CMF negative, money flow out. Volume profile forms $0.10-$0.11 POC (point of control); volume confirmation needed for breakout. Overall: Increasing volume supports recovery but insufficient for trend reversal.
Risk Assessment
From current $0.11, bear target $0.0634 (risk: -42%, reward score 22), bull target $0.1477 (+34%, low score 10). Risk/reward ratio favors bear side 1:1.5 (high probability of support breakdown). Main risks: BTC downtrend spillover, false bounce after low RSI, macro FUD. Volatility 45% (24h), stop-loss suggestion short below $0.0946, long above $0.1171. Position size limited to 1-2% risk. Balanced view: 60% bearish probability, 40% bounce to resistance.
Bitcoin Correlation
DOGE moves in 0.85 correlation with BTC; BTC at $77,975 in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. BTC supports $76,260-$63,235 critical – BTC drop below 76k pushes DOGE to $0.09. Resistances $79,364-$82,602; BTC breakout triggers DOGE $0.13 test. BTC dominance rising signals altcoin caution: DOGE BTC pair in downtrend, monitor spot BTC>DOGE ratio.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
DOGE chart net bearish: Downtrend structure, indicator confluence, and resistance weight dominant. Short-term RSI oversold bounce may be limited to $0.1171-$0.13 zone; if $0.0946 not defended, $0.0634 bear leg begins. Strategy: Range trade (short $0.1171, long $0.0946), watch BTC key levels. Long-term holders HODL, traders follow DOGE Spot Analysis and DOGE Futures Analysis. Full view: Bearish bias, selective entry.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.