DEXE Weekly Analysis Feb 6

DEXE is maintaining its downtrend structure at the $2.09 level with a 3.20% weekly decline; although the oversold RSI signal offers bounce potential, a cautious approach is necessary under strong resistances and BTC pressure. While the market structure gives accumulation phase signals, confirmation should be awaited for a trend reversal.

DEXE in the Weekly Market Summary

DEXE traded in the $1.73 – $2.18 range last week, closing at $2.09 and signaling the continuation of its downtrend with a 3.20% loss. The volume profile remained low at $3.75M, while momentum indicators (RSI 28.08) point to the oversold region and MACD’s negative histogram confirms bearish momentum. The price trading below the short-term EMA20 ($2.69) is in a bearish position in the overall trend filter. In the bigger picture, DEXE moves in correlation with BTC within the general weakness of the altcoin market; from a market cycle perspective, signals of transition from the distribution phase to a potential accumulation stage are observed, but confirmation is lacking. This week, critical support tests will be at the forefront for DEXE detailed spot analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The market structure clearly maintains the long-term downtrend for DEXE; on higher timeframes (1W/1M), lower high/lower low formation dominates and the trendline forms strong resistance around $2.70. The price remaining below EMA50 and EMA200 has not broken the bearish trend filter, and the impulse waves observed in recent months continue downward. In the macro context, considering we are in the correction phase of the crypto super cycle, DeFi tokens like DEXE are experiencing liquidity pullback. As long as the trend holds strong ($1.7260 support not broken), it offers attractive risk/reward ratios for short positions, but oversold conditions increase reversal risk.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

In recent weeks, the volume profile shows low-volume consolidation, and the $1.73-$2.18 range carries potential accumulation phase characteristics: low-volume tests and wicks in the support region indicate buyer interest. However, increasing selling volume at the upper band ($2.18+) confirms distribution patterns (formations similar to bearish engulfing). According to Wyckoff methodology, this range could be preparation for markup after a ‘spring’ test, but rising BTC dominance triggers distribution in altcoins. Volume increase and higher lows are required for accumulation phase confirmation; the probability of ‘re-accumulation’ is estimated at around 40% in the current structure.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, DEXE has a bearish bias with 1S/2R levels (support $1.7260, resistance $2.2193/$2.3994); RSI divergence (price making new lows while RSI makes higher lows) gives a bounce signal, but the MACD histogram is expanding negatively. The price is trapped below EMA20, and the 1D supertrend has made a bearish crossover. In terms of confluence, the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% level (around $2.09) aligns with the support test; a breakdown below would expect downside acceleration.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective, 3S/2R confluence (main supports $1.7260 and lower levels) defines the downtrend channel; the price is trading near the lower band of the channel and giving weakening signals with declining volume. Weekly RSI 28 is oversold but cautionary near multi-year lows; EMA50 ($3.00+) is distant resistance. As a market phase, accumulation buildup is observed on the weekly, but no bullish shift without trendline breakout. DEXE futures market data shows negative funding rates supporting short bias.

Critical Decision Points

Main levels that will determine direction: Major support $1.7260 (69/100 score, multi-TF confluence), breakdown opens path to $1.50. Resistances $2.2193 (62/100), $2.3994 (64/100), and $2.70 trendline; close above triggers trend shift. Among 10 strong levels (1D/3D/1W), the most critical is $1.7260 hold – high confluence here, failure to hold accelerates distribution. Upside objective $3.9825 (low probability), downside risk $0.1193 (long-term floor). Follow these levels for DEXE and other analyses; R/R ratio 1:5+ in bearish scenario.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

$2.2193 breakout above and $1.7260 hold activates bullish scenario: Long entry above $2.22, first target $2.3994, extension $3.98. Stop-loss below $2.10; position size 2-3% of portfolio with RSI divergence confirmation. Trendline $2.70 breakout is key for major reversal, BTC stabilization required. Risk/reward 1:3+, scale-in with accumulation phase confirmation.

In Case of Decline

Breakdown below $1.7260 strengthens bearish dominance: Short entry with breakdown confirmation, targets $1.50 and $0.1193 extension. Stop above $1.80; aggressive short with MACD confirmation. Use trail stop against oversold bounce risk, max position 4%. Core strategy as long as downtrend intact.

Bitcoin Correlation

DEXE shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); with BTC in downtrend at $66,974 (24h -4.35%) and supertrend bearish, altcoins are under pressure. If BTC key supports $65,881/$62,910/$60,000 break, DEXE tests $1.7260; resistance above $69,812 brings relief. Rising BTC dominance triggers outflow in DEXE – stay cautious below BTC $65k in weekly strategy.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week, $1.7260 support hold and $2.2193 resistance test are critical; BTC movements will dominate. Although oversold conditions offer bounce, short bias is forefront without downtrend breakdown – wait for confluence, avoid early entry. Monitor volume spikes for market phase transition.