Data Hints at Supply Squeeze

Key Points

• Sharks accumulated 65K BTC in seven days, raising total holdings to a record 3.65 million.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 1.3M BTC, reflecting persistent institutional demand.
• Exchange outflows and LTH absorption signal tightening supply despite momentum cooling.

Bitcoin sharks, addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC, added 65,000 BTC in one week, pushing their total holdings to 3.65 million. This accumulation occurred as prices hovered near $112,000, showing strong structural demand despite short-term volatility in retail-driven trading.

Long-Term Holder Net Position Change confirms this trend, with inflows exceeding 500,000 BTC over 30 days. These accumulation spikes typically occur before larger bull runs, as coins shift to strong hands less likely to sell quickly.

Exchange Netflow data reinforces the narrative, with persistent negative netflows signaling coins are moving off exchanges into cold storage. This withdrawal trend reduces liquid supply, suggesting accumulation is genuine rather than speculative churn.

The convergence of shark buying, long-term holder absorption, and sustained outflows increases the likelihood of a supply squeeze if new demand emerges. While corrections are possible during leverage buildups, the backdrop favors upside continuation once demand accelerates.

ETFs Build Institutional Positioning as Momentum Enters Cooling Zone

At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold 1,301,706 BTC, underscoring their expanding influence on market structure. Holdings have steadily grown since early 2024, with inflows outweighing short-term redemptions during volatile periods.

This ETF growth has supported Bitcoin’s consolidation above $100,000, as regulated vehicles attract both institutional and retail capital. Such sustained demand tightens available supply, reinforcing long-term positioning and strengthening price resilience at higher ranges.

However, Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum has shifted into the Impulse Cooling Zone, registering -3.7 while testing deeper lows near -8. Price remains above $110,000, but the cooling suggests a sideways or step-by-step consolidation phase.

Historically, negative momentum during high-range consolidations signals drift rather than breakdown, particularly in low liquidity conditions. A restart signal would come if momentum climbs back above 0, ideally surpassing +10% for renewed trend acceleration.

Until then, limited supply and localized buying could keep price drifting upward, though risks of sharp pullbacks persist. Demand usually returns at perceived value levels rather than at cycle highs, aligning with cost basis dynamics tracked among short-term holders.