 
 
XRP is exhibiting a market structure that analysts believe could precede a sharp shift in buying behavior.
According to Glassnode, XRP’s current structure mirrors conditions last seen in February 2022, with prolonged consolidation and mounting stress among late entrants.
One key signal is the behavior of short-term holders. Investors active within the one-week to one-month window are now accumulating XRP below the cost basis of the six-to-twelve-month cohort.
This inversion indicates that newer buyers are entering at lower prices while earlier participants remain underwater, increasing psychological pressure on those who bought near recent highs.
As this structure persists, the incentive for top buyers to capitulate grows, often setting the stage for a decisive move.
 
Recent historical data reinforces this tension. The $2.0 level has emerged as a critical psychological zone for XRP holders. Since early 2025, each retest at this level has resulted in realized weekly losses ranging from $0.5 billion to $1.2 billion.
In late November 2025, daily realised losses surged, with the 30-day EMA spiking to roughly $75 million per day, the highest level since April 2025.
At the same time, the share of XRP supply in profit fell to 58.5%, leaving 41.5%, or about 26.5 billion XRP, sitting at a loss despite prices trading more than four times higher than in late 2024.
As XRP declined from $3.09 to $2.30 since late September, profit-realization volume surged by approximately 240%, indicating selling into weakness rather than strength. Long-term holders added to the pressure, increasing spending by nearly 580% between August and October as prices slid from $3.3 to $2.4.
Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap data shows that XRP fell 3.6% over the past 24 hours to $1.63, underperforming its 45-day gain of 4.9% and tracking a market-wide decline of 2.3%.
Moreover, technical traders point to historical structures that once preceded explosive rallies, while on-chain metrics reveal persistent whale skepticism.
With resistance clustered between $1.75 and $2.40 and growing ecosystem developments unfolding, XRP remains a high-risk, high-conversion trade rather than a defensive play.