Coinbase vs Binance, but for Prediction Markets

Prediction markets heat up in September, with Kalshi storming past industry peer and market rival Polymarket.

Kalshi recorded a surge in trading activity, repositioning itself as a US-regulated platform, the frontrunner in the sector.

NFL and Sports Betting Drive Prediction Market Adoption

Sponsored

According to Dune data, Kalshi’s market share jumped from just 5% at the start of 2025 to over 60% by September.

Weekly trading volumes soared to more than $500 million following the kickoff of the NFL season, rivaling the levels usually seen only during US elections.

Sports markets have proven to be Kalshi’s breakout category. A partnership with Robinhood in March introduced retail-friendly prediction markets around pro and college football, accelerating adoption.

Analysts note that Kalshi’s regulated status in the US has given it an edge in tapping mainstream sports bettors. Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction platform is making headway in the American market following regulatory purview with the CFTC.

The NFL effect was decisive. By the first week of the season, Kalshi’s weekly volume matched levels typically seen in presidential election years, cementing sports as a powerful new growth driver for prediction markets.

Sponsored

“Kalshi has done $441 million of volume since the NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is equal to a US election. Probably nothing,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour shared on X (Twitter) recently.

Coinbase vs Binance, but for Prediction Markets

Industry observers often frame the Kalshi-Polymarket rivalry as a mirror of the Coinbase vs Binance dynamic in crypto.

Sponsored

This dual approach highlights the race to become the universal liquidity layer for prediction markets through regulatory compliance and decentralization.

Kalshi’s recent partnerships with Solana and Base suggest it is also preparing to bridge the crypto-native audience.

In September, the exchange launched an ecosystem hub to fund developers, creators, and new prediction products.

With Paradigm backing its strategy, Kalshi is moving beyond politics and sports into entertainment, esports, and even financial market events.

Sponsored

Meanwhile, as Polymarket closes in on a US relaunch, CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed CFTC approval for reentry. The move could put the platform directly competing with Kalshi in its home market.

Before that happens, however, Kalshi is enjoying one of its strongest months in nearly a year. Dune data shows it reported $1.3 billion in trading volume in September, surpassing Polymarket’s $773 million mid-month tally.

Both companies are preparing new funding rounds, with Polymarket’s valuation at $9–10 billion and Kalshi’s near $5 billion.

With sports betting, crypto integrations, and political wagers all converging, prediction markets appear poised to break into the financial mainstream.