COINOTAG News’ December 25 briefing notes that the CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 13.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut to the federal funds rate in January, with an 86.7% odds on no change in policy. The reading signals a minority expectation for tightening while markets price patience into early 2025.
This configuration underscores policy stability rather than an imminent tightening cycle. Investors should monitor Fed commentary and macro data, as any clarification on the balance of risks could adjust market expectations for rate moves. Even with subdued odds of a change, shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite can impact equities and crypto liquidity.