Citigroup Revises Fed Rate Cut Forecast to September 2025 – Coincu

Citigroup has revised its forecast for the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut, pushing the expected date from July to September 2025. This update was announced by Citi’s economic research team earlier in June.

The forecast shift signals a delayed easing in monetary policies, influencing interest rate-sensitive markets such as bonds and cryptocurrencies. Investors may respond with caution to the anticipated slower pace of Fed rate cuts.

Citigroup Shifts Fed Rate Cut to September 2025

Citigroup’s economic research team, renowned for its macroeconomic insights, announced a change in its expectation for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut. Initially planned for July, the rate cut is now expected in September 2025. This adjustment suggests shifts in the economic outlook and inflation control measures.

The revision projects cumulative rate cuts totaling 125 basis points for 2025, affecting markets sensitive to interest rate changes. The U.S. dollar could experience a short-term strengthening, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum might face volatility. Traditional finance yields staying higher could affect DeFi protocols.

Industry and government officials have not issued statements directly in response to Citigroup’s forecast update. However, past delays typically led to increased discussions among investors and analysts. Johanna Chua from Citi expressed a cautious approach by saying, “I think at this point, the path of least resistance for the Fed is, let us just wait” (CNBC TV18).

Delayed Fed Cuts Could Pressure Crypto Recovery

Did you know? In previous years, similar Federal Reserve rate cut delays resulted in reduced Total Value Locked (TVL) on decentralized finance platforms, as investors favored higher-yielding traditional assets.

Bitcoin (BTC), currently priced at $104,575.86, maintains a market cap of $2.08 trillion according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency saw a 21.24% increase over the past 90 days. Its trading volume remains significant, with $53.25 billion exchanged within 24 hours as of June 6, 2025.

The Coincu research team notes that Citi’s revised forecast may delay crypto market recovery tied to liquidity, with ongoing adjustments in monetary policy potentially pressuring asset prices. This aligns with past trends where rate policy changes impacted both technological innovation pace and financial instruments’ risk profile.