Cardano (ADA): updated technical analysis

After months of consolidation, Cardano returns to the spotlight among the most followed cryptos in the market. But what do the charts, technical indicators, and on-chain dynamics really tell us? And what are the most concrete prospects for ADA in the coming months?

A breakout awaited for months for Cardano (ADA) 

In recent times, the sentiment around Cardano (ADA) has undergone a decisive shift.

After weeks of sideways trading between $0.60 and $0.74, the crypto of Charles Hoskinson has finally shown clear signs of strength, breaking the historical resistance in the $0.75 area and setting its sights on the psychological threshold of $1.

This breakout, moreover expected and “charged” by increasing volumes, has been favored both by sector news (including rumors about the possibility of a spot ETF on ADA) and by increasingly solid on-chain fundamentals.

The Total Value Locked on Cardano has indeed grown by over 100 million dollars in the last month, a clear signal that the DeFi on the ADA ecosystem is finally taking off. But let’s proceed in order and look at the technical data.

From a graphical point of view, ADA has drawn a very interesting structure in the last three months.

After the strong rally of June-July, the crypto has moved in a classic “symmetrical triangle,” a consolidation figure that often anticipates an impulsive movement in the direction of the main trend.

The bull breakout arrived just in these weeks, with a daily close above $0.75 accompanied by a surge in volumes: a technical confirmation that had been missing for some time and that has reignited the expectations of many traders.

Key levels to monitor:

• Main support: $0.74-0.75 – now turned into a starting base after the breakout.
• First resistance: $0.87-0.90 – relative high of April and first technical target in case of continuation.
• Psychological resistance: $1.00 – round and “magnetic” threshold, often a scenario of profit-taking and high volatility.
• Extended bullish area: $1.20-1.50 – medium-term projection in case of rally continuity.

Technical indicators: momentum and correction risk

If we look at the main momentum indicators, the situation is clearly bullish but with some caveats.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily timeframe has moved above the 70 mark, a zone that traditionally indicates overbought conditions.

In the past, however, ADA has shown the ability to maintain high RSI levels for several weeks, especially during strong bull trends.

That said, a small technical retracement (perhaps right towards the new support at $0.75) would be physiological and useful to “unload” the excess speculation.

The MACD confirms the positive momentum: the MACD line has crossed above the signal on both the daily and weekly charts, suggesting that the bullish phase still has development potential.

On the volume front, there is a clear increase during the breakout. This confirms the validity of the movement and suggests that it is not a “fake out,” but a real shift in the market.

Technical analysis never exists in a vacuum: Cardano today can rely on improving fundamentals, a factor that often acts as a catalyst for prices.

• TVL (Total Value Locked): surpassed $340 million, with a growth of over 40% compared to June. A figure that demonstrates the growing adoption of DeFi on Cardano, with more projects, more liquidity, and more on-chain transactions.
• Active addresses: according to official data, in recent weeks there has been a jump of 38% in active unique addresses. Such a sharp increase is often a sign of real interest and not just short-term speculation.
• News ecosystem: the next hard fork “Plomin” (expected between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026) should bring significant improvements to on-chain governance and developer tools, strengthening the protocol’s competitiveness.

What to expect in the coming months? Scenarios and strategies

If the current momentum continues, ADA could consolidate above $0.80 and aim to break the $1.00 barrier by the fall. In case of positive news on ETFs and with a growing DeFi, the more ambitious targets are in the $1.20-1.50 area by the end of the year.

Supporting this thesis are also the projections of several international analysts, who see Cardano in line with the performance of Ethereum and Solana. However, the risk of technical corrections should not be overlooked.

An excessively high RSI, combined with a slowdown in volumes, could trigger profit-taking and a retracement towards key supports ($0.75 and $0.65). In this case, the solidity of the chart structure will be crucial to avoid a loss of momentum.

The negative scenario, today, seems the least likely.

However, it could materialize in the presence of macroeconomic shocks (unexpected rate hikes, Bitcoin crash, rejection of crypto ETFs). In that case, ADA could return to the $0.60-0.65 area before finding balance.

• Optimal entry: it is better to wait for a small retracement towards $0.75-0.78, to avoid buying at short-term highs.
• First target: $0.87-0.90, with partial profit-taking.
• Second target: area $1-1.20, managing the trade with a trailing stop to protect gains.
• Stop-loss: below $0.74, in case of a return below the old resistance.