Can Dogecoin surge 1000% like in 2021? Breaking down the odds

• DOGE has all the right ingredients to repeat its historic 2021 rally, which sent it to an all-time high of $0.73.
• However, a lot has changed since then. Can DOGE keep up?

The market slowdown has taken a toll on memecoins, with many falling below key targets. Dogecoin [DOGE] is one of the few holding on – but it’s just 4% away from losing ground. 

However, its solid support above $0.30 could signal a rebound. Back in 2021, DOGE surged over 1000% to hit $0.73 in under 100 days, marking its most explosive Q1.

Could Dogecoin make a powerful comeback and break new ground this quarter?

Four years of change

From 2021 to 2025, the crypto market has evolved rapidly. The market cap has surged to $3.5 trillion, while the number of currencies has jumped from 4,015 in 2021 to over 10,000 – a staggering 150% increase.

Despite growing competition, whale wallets holding 1B+ DOGE have increased by 20%, now holding 74.07 billion coins. Open Interest (OI) has also surged 5x, crossing $1 billion in May 2021, aligning with DOGE’s bull rally.

Source: Santiment

DOGE has clearly seen impressive growth, with both spot and futures trading booming. But it’s still 52% off its all-time high, making the $1 target seem far off.

Why? Because of its inflationary structure. Right now, there are about 148 billion DOGE coins in circulation. Unlike Bitcoin, Dogecoin has an unlimited supply.

With 5 billion new coins entering circulation each year, the value of each DOGE faces constant devaluation.

So, to repeat the 2021 rally and soar to $3.85, DOGE would need a market cap of $560 billion – a huge jump. For this to happen, demand would have to absolutely explode to absorb the constant influx of new coins.

DOGE’s tokenomics under scrutiny

For context, at its press time price of $0.35, DOGE would have a market cap of around $45 billion if its circulating supply had stayed the same as four years ago.

But with billions of new coins entering circulation each year, thanks to its inflationary nature, Dogecoin’s market cap has grown to $52 billion – a 15% increase.

This highlights an interesting point: For a memecoin like DOGE, market cap alone might not tell the full story. What truly matters is demand. 

Whether DOGE can reclaim its all-time highs or even repeat the bullish Q1 rally from four years ago will depend on how much demand can overcome the challenges of its inflationary supply. 

Accumulation, especially from big players, will be key. While big players continue to accumulate, interestingly, wallets holding 10 million to 1 billion DOGE have sold off 18% of their holdings in the last 60 days.

Source: Santiment

Is your portfolio green? Check out the Dogecoin Profit Calculator

The bottom line? DOGE’s long-term value is increasingly controlled by a few hands, making it more speculative. This also lowers the chances of a Dogecoin ETF anytime soon.

With all that in mind, a 1000%+ surge to $3.85 seems far from certain.